Trade setup for 22nd july

  1. This is the expiry week. So be ready for the roller coaster ride.
  2. On Friday, markets fell 177 points and banknifty fell 600+ points.
  3. Taxation on FPI is considered as the reason and FPI have withdrawn 7000+ cr in July.
  4. After the budget, the entire sentiment has turned negative. 
  5. Maybe we may have some short term fall, but I am confident that long term we are well placed.
  6. Over the weekend, Reliance, hdfcbank came with results. Reliance gave good results and was better than expected. But HDFC bank somewhat did not meet the expectation. So hdfc bank may be negative. HDFC bank negative means banknifty negative.
  7. Don't read much into technicals and charts. We are falling not because of global cues. It is purely due to domestic news. This might get worst. While failing shares always take the elevator. 
  1. I had 31000 short straddles a few weeks back where I had collected 1000 rs. On Friday, the breakeven of that was challenged. So I sold futures to protect that. Now I am fully protected on the downside.
  2. Along with that in the early morning when the trend was clearly on the downside, I bought a good amount of banknifty OTM puts. Now that is ITM.  
  3. I had nifty august 11700 straddles. I had done this trade long back and I was still in profit. I closed the trade as it had approached my breakeven point.
  4. I have sold nifty futures and bought calls to hedge that.
  5. I have executed call spread in august series in both nifty and banknifty.
  6. Most of my portfolio stocks are bleeding now. Most of my mutual funds are bleeding now. 
  7. I am planning to add more and average prices but not now. I don't want to catch the falling knife. Let it fall. 
  1. On Friday, the US markets closed in the red.
  2. The European markets closed in a flat territory
  3. Today morning, the Asian markets are in red. SGX indicates that we may open in red.
  1. FII sold 950cr of friday and DII bought for 733cr
  2. The selling of FII for such long time was somewhat indicating that things were not good. Now I am able to connect the dots. Till now even I was not able to identify them.
CRUDE and $
  1. Crude is now at $63.30. This is good for India. I think this is the only good news we have. :)
  2. S is now trading at 68.80