Trade setup for the day

  1. Yesterday was a very bad expiry for many traders. Markets were very volatile. Nifty and banknifty was swinging on either side. 
  2. But this was expected on a monthly expiry day. Frankly speaking, I was not surprised. I would have been surprised if it was not like that.
  3. Luckily, I was not caught in the fights between bulls and bears. I was able to make a profit of 1 lakh 20 thousand (MTM). My intraday expiry profit was around 90 thousand. Rest was positional trades.
  4. I was a bit bullish all these days. I had hopes that the market would recover. But there is no sign of that happening. 
  5. That's why I tell people not to take my advice because  90% of the time my suggestions don't work. 
  6. Now I have started to believe that markets are entering a bear market. But I will start taking trades if 200DMA is broken.
  7. I still strongly feel that 200 DMA will be strong support. Let's see. I have all rights to be wrong.
  8. We have RBI policy on 7th.
  9. Shorting now will now be riskier as we are oversold. 
  10. My portfolio which majorly has HDFC twins, bajaj twins, reliance, REC, PFC are bleeding now. But that's ok. I still have room for that. I am anyway hedging them in the derivatives market.
  11. Markets have fallen for 6 consecutive trades. We may see some covering in this week.
  1. Yesterday the US markets were also bleeding. DOW lost 0.5% and NASDAQ lost more than a per cent.
  2. The European markets also closed in the red.
  3. Today morning the Asian markets are also in the red. SGX is flat.
  4. Last few weeks when the international markets were good, we underperformed. Now they are down. Will be to consolidate or will we fall more is a million $ question.
  1. Yesterdays volatility was due to expiry and positions covering. It was clear as FII sold only 126cr and DII bought for 400 cr.
  2. The DII are supporting the market in a big time. They are buying more than the FII are selling. 
  1. $ is now at Rs 69. 
  2. Crude is trading at $63.39
  3. So crude and $ are in favour of India.