Trade setup for the expiry day

Yesterday was a massive short-covering rally. I didn't expect market to recover so swiftly. Nifty was up by 186 points and banknifty gained more than 1000 points. I expected some bounce back after 6 days of consecutive fall in nifty but definitely didn't expect such a V shape recovery. The earning season and festive season has given a way for the bulls. Nifty is now above the 50 DMA. Lets see if we can get follow through.

MY TRADES

  1. Yesterday I had to run for cover after such a massive run. I closed some of the positions in minor loss
  2. I did some counter trades for some of the positional trades. 
  3. Yesterday when banknifty gave a clear sign of a trending day, I sold 28000pe for this weekly expiry. 
  4. I had sold bajajfinance pe with the hope of taking delivery. Now I doubt that would happen. But still I will take to keep the premium.
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
  1. The US markets closed in dark green yesterday. It gained more than a per cent on yesterday's close.
  2. European markets also closed in green.
  3. Today morning the Asian markets were in the red. But now most of the indices have recovered from the day's low. Nikkei has recovered more than a per cent from the day's low.
  4. SGX suggests that we may open low. Since today is weekly expiry, expect some roller coaster ride.
FII AND DII DATA
  1. FII has sold for 485cr and DII have bought for 956cr. I am still surprised that FII are still not buying.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is at $56. This is very good for the Indian industries.
  2. $ is at 71.07. 
  3. So from $ and crude we are good. 
RESULTS
  1. Today we have indusind bank and TCS. Need to see if indussnd bank has the ability to take banknifty to 29000+
EXPIRY TRADE
  1. It is definitely difficult to come up with a range in this volatile market.
  2. Going by OI analysis, highest OI is there in 11500ce and 11200pe of nifty and 30000 and 28000 in banknifty.
  3. For expiry trade, it is safe to stick with nifty as banknifty will be very volatile due to indusind bank. 
  4. Max pain is at 11300 and 28500 in nifty and banknifty respectively.

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