26th dec Expiry day trade setup


  1. Yesterday was a holiday. We are coming to an end of the highly volatile expiry today. On Tuesday, the markets closed in the red. Nifty lost around 50 points and banknifty also lost around 50 points at the end. 
  2. Reliance was one of the major draggers.
  3. Personally, I did not expect nifty to break 12000 in this expiry, but we are now at 12200+. The markets are in the strong hand of the bulls. There will be a slight consolidation but this is not a market to short. 
  4. We do not have any major event in the near term. Now all eyes will be on the budget expectation.
  5. Crude is a major concern. It is now above $67. The stock market will adjust accordingly if crude prices don't adjust
  6. The volumes across the global markets are low as all are on a vacation mood.


MY TRADES

  1. I was slightly bearish, so I had sold banknifty futures. On Tuesday, I did average but still I am at a loss. Since today is expiry, the future premium will be discounted. I will not do any major adjustment trade today as I will be busy in the expiry trade. I may close the trade in minor loss or will rollover for next month.
  2. On Tuesday, I did butterfly in banknifty and nifty.
    1. + 1 x Banknifty 32300ce
    2. +1 x Banknifty 32200pe
    3. -5 x Banknifty 32400ce
    4. +4 x Banknifty 32500ce
    5. -5 x Banknifty 32100pe
    6. +4x Banknifty 32000pe
  3. Nifty butterfly trade
    1. +1 x Nifty 12250ce
    2. +1 x Nifty 12150pe
    3. -5 x Nifty 12300ce
    4. +4 x Nifty 12350ce
    5. -5 x Nifty 12100pe
    6. +4 x Nifty 12050pe
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
  1. The world market is flat. Nothing worth mentioning individually.
  2. SGX also suggests that we may open in flat.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is above $67. This is a matter of slight concern. 
  2. $ is now at Rs 71.26
FII AND DII DATA
  1. As I told, the volumes are low. FII sold for 100cr and DII sold for 350cr.
EXPIRY SETUP
  1. Nifty has the highest OI at 12300ce and 12000pe
  2. Banknifty has highest OI at 32500ce and 32000pe
  3. Max pain for nifty and banknifty is at 12200 and 32200 respectively.
  4. Today is monthly expiry and year-end. So nifty may range from 12150 to 12300
  5. Banknifty may range from 32000 to 32500.

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