Trade setup for 25th feb 2020

  1. Sorry, yesterday I missed writing the blog as I woke up late. Coming to markets, yesterday was a bloodbath. We have 3 reasons for the fall. It is Carona, Carona and Carona. Now the virus has moved to Europe. There are new cases found in South Korea, Italy, Iran. This caused fear in the market. 
  2. The US markets fell close to 2-3%. Dow had the worst fall in the last 2-3 years. We have Donald Trump in the country and because of Carona, there is no much importance to this news. 
  3. Yesterday, the exchanges have decided to reduce the margins for the hedged options strategies. Now the options trading will include more participants. This will change the dynamics of the options trading.
  4. We have broken the important support of 12000, 11900 and we almost missed breaking 11800. And all this happened in a single day.
  5. Nifty has a 200 DMA at 11700. I feel that this will not be broken. Let's see. I will short aggressively in FNO market and buy good quality stocks in cash if that happens. But that is most unlikely to happen.
  6. After the USFDA news, auro pharma fell 15%. This was expected. Carona added more fuel to the fall.
  7. All metal stocks, tata motors, pharma fell yesterday. 
  8. Even if there is a slight recovery in the Carona, we can see a sharp short-covering rally. But on the contrary, if the virus continues to spread, there can be more fall.
  9. The only thing that was shining was the gold and VIX. Gold is now at Rs 4350. 


  1. I did not expect the market to fall below 12000 and 11900. I closed some of the positions in loss and did a lot of trade adjustment. 
  2. I expected the defensives to perform as $ rose. But in yesterday's fall even they were not spared. 
  3. I did not take any fresh trade and I am waiting for the Carona fears to escalate or diminish.
  4. This is the golden time to build a portfolio. If markets fall more(by any chance) then I will build a good portfolio for the long term.
  1. Yesterday the dow lost 100o points. Nasdaq lost 350 points. This is the highest single-day loss in the last 3 years.
  2. European markets also lost more than 3%. The Italian markets fell 5% as they found cases in Carona virus.
  3. But today morning the Asian markets are in mild green. SGX suggest that we may open in the green. It is already up by 65 points. But will we be able to hold that and get follow-through is the question? 
  1. The FII's have sold for 1150 cr and DII have bought for 516cr. 
  2. The selling yesterday was not as bad as I expected. For such a bad fall, I expected FII to have sold atleast 2000cr. So it is ok.
  1. $ is now at Rs 71.92. 
  2. Brent is now at $56.65. This is the only good news we have at the moment.