Trade setup for 26th march

Yesterday markets rallied due to global rally. Today we see that there are many blue-chip companies which have fallen more than 30-40% in the last 1 to 1.5 month. There are some signs that this might be the bottom but I need more clarity to go longs. However, it is a good time to start SIP's. In fact, I have started SIP's from 10000 itself. I do not think this market will see a V-shaped recovery. The country is in lockdown and we may need 2 to 3 quarters for the recovery. Now there are more cases being reported in countries like Singapore. Now Spain is giving competition to Italy and China. Now that is the third-highest number of cases in Carona. The death toll in Spain is more than that of China.
Yesterday, all of a sudden we saw Reliance, HDFC bank, Axis, Maruti ralling. Reliance hit 20% circuit. We need to see if we get a follow-through today or not.
India may give a $20 billion to fight Carona. After a long time, we see that the VIX is now colling slightly. But still, the value is very high. These are some of the things to watch to get clarity that the bottom might have formed

  1. Vix below 30
  2. FII buying 
  3. Nifty futures and banknifty futures in premium
  4. Any technical indicator which shows that the reversal possibility. I use Supertrend. You can use the one which you are comfortable.
  5. Nifty above 9000 is a must. Don't get carried away by one day 300, 400 point rally. Usually, they are traps.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET
  1. Yesterday, the US markets were slightly mixed. The Dow and S&P closed in green and each gained more than a per cent but nasdaq closed in the red.
  2. The European markets also closed in the green.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in red. Japan is down by 4%.
  4. SGX suggests that we may open in mild red.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Now US is asking Saudi to crack a deal with Russia. 
  2. Yesterday the Brent was $27.16 and $ is 75+
FII AND DII
  1. FII has sold for 1893cr and DII have bought for 737.98cr
  2. The FII sell value has come down significantly. But still, it is on sell-side. We need them to be net buyers at least for 3 days consecutively to get a belief that we may turn around by bottom formation.
EXPIRY TRADE
  1. I am not trading this expiry as there is a terminal issue from my broker.
  2. In this high VIX condition no parameters work. Better to stay away.

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