Trade setup for 15th April


  1. Now the lockdown is extended till May 3rd. This was not a surprise as all states had opted for the extension. Most of this has been factored in the market. So we may not fall more due to this news.
  2. IMF has projected a recession in the coming quarter. India's forecast has been projected to 1.9% for this year.
  3. Now we are in the results season. We have a number of companies coming up with its earnings for this quarter. Now this will be interesting and let's see if this can take market higher or lower.
  4. In the PE world, Zomato bought Grofers. It was surprising for me as not much startup deals happen during the bear cycle. 
  5. Crude place is interesting as OPEC+ have decided to cut the oil output but the cut was not as estimated.
  6. On Monday, we closed slightly below the 9000. Today we might break 9200. It will be good if we close above 9200.
  7. We might break the 20dma in  banknifty as we have already broken that on the nifty. 
  8. If 9200 is broken this week, then I will consider that the bottom has reached and we may not touch 7500 lows again. 
  9. The deaths in the US has declined and US is coming out with a plan to reopen the economy.



MY TRADES

  1. Option premiums are high and the VIX is falling for some days now. Now we are at 50+ in VIX. 
  2. I have executed a ratio spread in the next month series
    1. +1x nifty 8000pe
    2. -1x nifty 7900pe
    3. -1x nifty 7800pe
    4. -1x nifty 7700pe 
  3. I had sold some PE of maruti, indusind bank, yesbank, ITC, HDFC bank. All are in good profit as of today. I am planning to exit them today as we have earning season coming and I prefer to stay out as things might get volatile.
  4. In futures, I am long in Vedanta and hindalco.
  5. I have also executed a banknifty short straddle at 19600 for the week. I have collected 1100 for this trade. The positions are small, so let's see if time decay is in my favour or not. I just want it to be stable today as tomorrow is expiry and we can manage in many ways for tomorrow.
  6. Now my equity portfolio is slightly becoming green one by one. now my equity portfolio is down by close to 20%. It was close to 35% some time back. I am not considering the here trades for this portfolio. 
INTERNATIONAL MARKET

  1. The world markets are in green. The Dow closed with a gain of close to 2.5% and Nasdaq gained close to 3.5%
  2. European markets are also in the green. 
  3. Today Asia is flat. SGX suggests that we may open 150 to 200 point higher.Lets see how we take it from there.
FII AND DII
  1. On Monday, FII sold for 1243cr and DII sold for 1100cr.
  2. Now this figure is disturbing. 
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is again below $30. 
  2. $ is at Rs 76

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