Trade setup for expiry 20th August


  1. Today will be a bad day at the market. SGX is showing that we will have a 100 point gap down. There is no bad news. It will be expiry trade and profit booking. There is some profit booking in the world markets as well. 
  2. Yesterday, again the AGR is postponed to today. So it will be difficult to trade the expiry. So I prefer to have very low volumes for today. 
  3. So crossing 11500 will need some time. I feel that we may not do it this month as well.
  4. In the US market, Apple has hit the $2 trillion market valuation beating Saudi Aramco. 
  5. The US fed minutes show that there are some economic concerns. So this triggered the fall in the US markets and now the world markets are down. I feel that the markets needed a trigger as they had rallied a lot in short time.
  6. The US has ended the pact with Hong Kong on many things. 
  7. Yesterday markets were very flat. There was no Wednesday volatility. Probably the market expected the AGR which did not happen. So today we may have move volatility as there is AGR+expiry. I thought of doing long straddle if markets open flat. But now that option is gone as there will be a gap down. 

MY TRADES

  1. I had executed some butterfly's some days back and I thought I had to do some adjustment yesterday. But I did not do anything and today markets are going to open lower and these trades will be in good profit.
  2. Today will be more of sit and watch day as things might burn you if you try to be very intelligent.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. Yesterday DOW and Nasdaq fell half per cent after Fed view on economic concerns. 
  2. European markets closed in the green.
  3. Today morning Asia is in deep red. SGX shows that we will have 150 points cut.
FII AND DII
  1. FII bought for 450cr and DII sold for 97cr.
  2. Today's institution activity will be interesting. Lets see if FII buys the dip which I doubt.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is at $45
  2. $ is at $74.82
EXPIRY SETUP
  1. Nifty has highest OI at 11500ce and 11300pe
  2. Banknifty has highest OI at 22500ce and 22000pe
  3. Nifty may range from 11250-11350
  4. Banknifty may range from 21500 to 22500

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