Trade setup for 20th November


 
  1. Yesterday was a very volatile expiry. Things did now work in my favour. So had to close with a loss of around 72 thousand.
  2. Markets opened with a gapdown and there was a buying and markets went up. Then there was a second wave of selling in the second half of the day and nifty fell close to 200 points. 
  3. Reliance is now below 2000. It has been hovering around 2000. I expect it to fall more as it had rallied a little too much in a short time. Now there is some news of that raising funds by selling the stake. I feel that most of it are priced in. But FII seems to be buyers yesterday as well which I didn't expect. 
  4. So it is still not time to short the markets. Wait for the RSI to come below 70 and FII to be net sellers. Now VIX is below 20 and I don't think there will be any major dangerous event in the future other than covid rise. This is the best time for long term short straddles
  5. From now, the markets will keenly watch Covid cases and Fed stimulus. Now it is definite that Biden will the president. It's just a drama which is going on in the US. 
  6. Serum Institute is confident of making a covid vaccine available by April. 
  7. The fear of Covid will not scare the bulls. So Covid may not take the markets lower again. 
MY TRADES
  1. I will be doing 13000 straddle on Dec 2021 today. It is running at a premium of 2000.
  2. Now the FII intensity may slow for some time as they have pumped in huge money in the market. So I will do a call ratio spread for this month expiry
    1. +1 X 13000ce
    2. -2 X 13300ce
    3. -1 X 13200ce
    4. -1 X13100ce
  3. I will also be doing a butterfly for this expiry
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
  1. There is some spat over the stimulus and the US markets are lower. So now the Stimulus will decide the further movement of the markets. Since elections are over and there is a vaccine hope as well, I don't think there will be a very huge stimulus. 
  2. Yesterday the Dow was flat but the NASDAQ was in the green. 
  3. European markets closed in the red. 
  4. Today morning the Asia is flat. SGX suggests a flat opening.
FII AND DII
  1. FII bought for 1200cr and DII sold for 2800cr. 
  2. DII are selling like this is their last chance and FII are buying like there is no tomorrow.

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