Trade setup for 18th Feb


Yesterday was indeed a volatile Wednesday. Nifty fell 100 points, then it recovered everything, fell 100 points again to close in red. This is how volatile the Wednesday's will get. 

Reliance was holding the markets. Now it is well above 2000 and now 2000 will act as strong support. This will now decide the trajectory of the nifty as well. We can expect a fall in nifty if this support is broken. Reliance has consolidated around this area for a long time also. The further move will take nifty higher.

Crude oil-related stocks are in focus as petrol and diesel prices are soaring. Tyres, paints are all down due to this. 

Bitcoin is well above the $50k. This is a new instrument for traders and we Indians are restricted to trade in this. We are missing a huge opportunity.

Today is expiry and you can expect the markets to be volatile. 

The global markets are not able to give a clear direction as most of the global markets are consolidating. It will now be interesting to see if the bull run will continue or will there be a trend reversal.

India vix is down and this is good for a bull market. 

I am expecting the nifty and banknifty to retrace to 20DMA in some time. If that is protected then the bull run will continue. 

I am slightly bearish for the short term. For longterm, I am very bullish. If there is any fall, I will use that opportunity to invest in the cash market.

The PSU banks which are for privatizations is in full mojo as they are soaring. 


  1. The call-ratio spreads which I took in weekly and monthly are in wonderful profit. As expected, the markets did fall. 
  2. I have sold 15000pe for today's expiry and bought 14800pe in huge quantity.
  3. I have executed the below strategy for today's expiry
    1. buy 37000ce X 1
    2. sell 37500ce X 2
    3. buy 38000ce X 1
  1. US markets were mixed. Dow closed in green and nasdaq closed in red.
  2. Europe closed in the red.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the mild green as Chinese companies results are good. Baidu came out with good results which have kept the positive sentiment high in the markets.
  4. SGX is showing a flat start. Let's see how it will react after opening. 
  1. FII are still buyers at this levels as well. They have invested 1000cr in the cash markets. DII have sold for 1300cr.
  1. Crude is at $65
  2. $ is at Rs 72.76
Expiry setup
  1. For today's expiry, yesterday's range will play a important role. If yesterday's low is broken then we will close lower. If that is protected then 15300 is a possibility.
  2. I don't expect huge volatility today as vix is falling. But yes, the expiry volatility will be there. The expiry stocks like HDFC twins, reliance will be in focus.
  3. Nifty has a max OI at 15300ce and 15000pe
  4. Banknifty has highest OI at 37k and 36k
  5. Nifty maxpain is at 15200 and that of banknifty is at 37000
  6. Nifty may range from 15150 to 15300
  7. banknifty may range from 36500to 37500