Trade setup for 16th March

 Markets are very volatile. Nifty fell more than 250 points yesterday and in the second half, it recovered more than 150 points. Banknifty had fallen 1000 points but at closing, it lost only 300 points.

Today we have the US fed meeting for 2 days. Now all eyes are on the outcome of this meet. The market direction will be decided by this outcome.

The macro data which came was bad. It was obvious that the rising fuel price would definitely increase inflation. CPI at 3 month high. The WPI was at 27 month high. 

The US bond yield is at 1.59 which is still high. The equity markets will be under pressure till this is high.

Yesterday the bill to raise FDI in insurance to 74% was introduced by the finance minister. Actually, the market recovery yesterday started after this news came. But this was expected. Not sure why markets had to react so much to this.

Maharashtra has put a lot of restriction as covid cases rise. They have banned all social gathering and have increased the restriction. 

The AstraZeneca virus is banned by many countries as there is some blood clot issue in that. 

Elon Musk is the 'Technoking' of Tesla and now this is official.

Bitcoin is back to $54k. It was above $60k

Nifty has broken the 20DMA. This is happening for the 2nd time. I will get more confidence to short if it falls below 50DMA.

There will be a double top pattern as well if 50 DMA  is broken. So I am waiting for this to happen. If that happens then nifty may goto 14k.

The upside seems to be risky as inflation is rising, crude is higher, FII selling, Covid restriction in Maharashtra. The 2-day FOMC might come out with a surprise. Now, this is a market where you short when nifty goes up.


  1. Yesterday I went long at the nifty. Nifty fell after I went long. I averaged it by buying more lot. In the second half, the nifty recovered and I closed everything in good profit.
  2. For the butterfly trade which I had, I have made some minor adjustments. For now, it is in good shape. 
  3. The best strategy for march expiry. I am executing this in huge volumes today.
    1. +1 X 15000ce
    2. -1 X 15500ce
    3. -1 X 15600ce
    4. -1 X 15700ce
    5. +2 X 15800ce
  1. The US markets closed in the green. Nasdaq has recovered more than 50% of its fall from its high

  1.  The European markets closed in the flat zone.
  2. The Asian markets are in green. SGX is suggesting a 50 point gap. Lets see if that can be held today.
  1. FII sold for 1100cr and DII sold for 750cr. 
  2. This indicator is my favourite indicator. It's very difficult for markets to rise as long as FII are selling. They are buying for a very long time and they are sitting with good profits. Now they will sell in all rise.
  1. Crude is at $68
  2. $ is at Rs 72.5

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