Trade setup for 25th March



 It's clear that the markets are weak, but do you short here? I would short at every rise from now. The psychological mark of 14500 should be broken easily and it looks like a double top pattern will play. If 14500 is broken on the closing basis then the next level is 14000.

Covid cases are also increasing worldwide. Now the vaccination age is 45 and above. It has become difficult for the bureaucrats and politicians to stop the spread as lockdown is not something they can afford. There might be civil war if lockdown is imposed again. Doing these things not as easy as it sounds. Now there are new variants of the virus.

The US markets again closed in the red. The dow was flat but Nasdaq fell drastically. The techs led to the downfall. I had told long back that Nasdaq is falling and in a downtrend. The tech had rallied a little too much, especially Tesla. 

The Auto industry worldwide is experiencing a shortfall of chips due to the power outage which is in Texas. The issue is so bad that GM has halted car production in some plants. This issue has an impact on our Indian car makers as well. The US govt and the auto industry is working hard to get this issue fixed as soon as possible. 

Tata motors is below 300 now. hdfcbank below 1500. ICICI below 600. This is a golden opportunity for investors. Wait for the markets to fall more. I will start buying quality stocks if 14000 is broken. Again, I will not enter in 1 shot. I will build a portfolio in phases.

I would avoid IPO's now. Till now it was a bull market and all IPO gave you a jackpot. From now, markets will be in consolidation or downtrend and the IPO's may not perform well and retailers will be trapped. 

Banks are very very weak. The moratorium verdict was actually bad for banks as they have to pay interest to the depositors for that period and they should not charge interest for the loan. But banknifty rallied upside when this verdict came which was surprising. It has broken weekly low, monthly low. 

The fall in crude is a benefit for the paints. Now the only 2 sectors which are rallying is paints and pharma. 

MY TRADES

  1. Yesterday, I did a trade in my Zerodha account(2lak) which went wrong and I did the adjustment. By the end of the day, it was in a profit of 2k(1%). I have not closed them as today is expiry. The trades were given in my telegram channel as well immediately.
  2. Today I may not do much in that account as I will be busy with the expiry trades.
  3. The April ratio spreads which I had taken a few days back is in wonderful profit.
 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

  1. The US markets are also weak especially the techs. The gamestop which was in news for the short squeeze is down 33% in 1 day. Morak: Never mess with institutions.
  2. Europe has closed in the flat.
  3. Today morning the Asian markets are in the green. SGX which was in the red is now in green. 
  4. Lets see if 14500 is taken out today.
FII AND DII

  1. Now FII have started selling. Lets see if they continue this. Yesterday they sold for almost 2000cr and DII bought for 600cr
 CRUDE AND $

  1. Crude is at $63 again. 
  2. $ is at 72
EXPIRY SETUP
  1. It's a volatile expiry.  LAst expiry, markets made a 400 point move intraday. 
  2. Highest OI is at 14800ce and 14500pe
  3. Banknifty has the highest OI at 34000ce and 33000pe
  4. MAx pain of nifty is at 14600 and that of banknift is t 33700.
  5. I don't expect the markets to be very volatile today. So I will go with IRON FLY at the beginning.
  6. Nifty may range from 14400 to 14700
  7. banknifty may range from 33000 to 33800

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