When I was a kid I used to play with crackers. There were some crackers that wouldn't burst after lighting. When I would go near them to check if it was lit then it would burst. Similarly, there was a fed meet where they told that inflation is real and they are thinking of hiking interest by 2023. On that day there was no impact on the stock market. So traders thought that things are taken positively by the market and then suddenly on Friday, the US markets fell. Now all the world markets are falling. Now it is interesting to see if this dip will also be bought by the retailers or will they accept the fact that stock markets is not as easy as they thought.
The problem with this kind of corrections is that the fall will be brutal and you will not get much opportunity to exit. So always invest or exit in phases. This is the only mantra that works.
The PNB housing which moved in +ve freeze sometimes as Aditya puri would join the board and Carlyle would invest in this. Now SEBI has put a brake on this investment. Now it may move in -ve freeze.
Keep an eye on midcap. The retail investments are mostly in this. Whenever the retailers lose confidence then this will be the most impacted one.
The Cryptos are under pressure as China has put strong restrictions on mining.
Now the country is opening up. Many states are now unlocking. Hotels, buses, offices are opening which is good. Now we need to see if the 3rd wave will be there or not. Analysts are suggesting the 3rd wave in Oct. I don't think that the 3rd wave will be severe as we are well prepared now and vaccination is also increasing. Very soon there will be something for small kids as well. If that is in place then we might be safe.
Today is International yoga day. I will be coming out with a small video in the evening on the importance of yoga for a successful life.
MY TRADES
- I did tell in my blogs and in the weekly inner circle meet that when markets have a huge rally for the first 3 weeks then there can be some profit booking in the last week. Now it looks like we may give the entire monthly gains in this week.
- I closed my monthly straddle which I had taken at the starting of the month with a profit of around 17k which is around 8%
- In my Zerodha account, I have sold 15000pe. If markets fall more then I might be in trouble in this trade.
- In the weekly inner circle call, I did say that I will be shorting the market if the close is below 15600. So look like that may happen today. I will be executing the below trade
- +1 X 15600pe
- -1 X 15400pe
- -1 X 15300pe
- -1 X 15200pe
- -1 X 15000pe
- Its bloodbath everywhere. Nikkei has fallen 3.5% today.
- The US markets closed in the red on Friday.
- Today the Asian markets are in deep red. SGX is suggesting a 200point gap opening.
- Crude is trading at $73.7
- $ is trading at Rs 74
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