Trade setup for 02nd July



 Yesterday was a cool expiry. It was expected that there wont be any as vix was low. I was able to make a profit of around 4% for the week including positional and intraday. 

So now many analysts feel that there can be a 5-10% correction. Will they be right or wrong, time will tell.

Opec+ meet has been postponed. There was a hope that this meet would help in more production of crude. Obviously, the crude shot up.

The NPA of the banks are rising as covid has increased the defaults of SME and retail customers.

Today you have the jobs data in the US which is keenly watched. 

Yesterday Elon musk made a tweet on Dogecoin and it shot up 7%. There was nothing in the tweet. It was just a song which he had put. These cryptos are so volatile. Difficult to trade in these volatile things. But it's good to have some exposure. I have invested 50k in various cryptos. Now its value is around 34k.

Now I feel that 16k may not be broken as easily as it crossed 15k. So now the trend is sell on rally. FII are selling. I am not going to short till closing is below 15600. I am now selling my equity investment. Will keep ready with cash to invest when there is a decent fall. 

MY TRADES

  1. Bought IGL ce. No hedge. Just 1 lot. 
  2. If vix comes below 10 in some days, I will be buying ATM CE and PE for next month.
  3. The pe backspread which I did sometime back in monthly expiry is in a loss. Will add some legs if markets goes beyond 15800 again
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. Nothing major happening in the international markets as well to create volatility. Not sure if this is the calm before a big move. 
  2. Yesterdau, the US markets closed in green.
  3. Europe closed in green with major indices gaining 0.5%
  4. Today Asian markets are flat. China and hongkong down 1%. SGX is flat.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Now crude is $75
  2. $ is at Rs 74
FII AND DII
  1. Now the FII seems to be in a selling mood. Yesterday they sold for 1245cr and DII bought for 880cr
  2. A lot of international and local fund managers feel that India is overpriced by 5-10% as per anand rathi. So sell on rally is the name of the game.

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