Trade setup for 16th July



 Yesterday there was a breakout as nifty crossed 15900 and closed above that. I would wait for follow-through as it might be a trap. Also to note, yesterday the last hour it gave some of its gains and did not close at the day's high. So let's not jump to a conclusion but wait for today. Today will be an important day as it will decide the trend. If nifty closes below 15900 then the same ping pong might continue. If it closes above yesterday's high then we can expect a strong rally.

Yesterday was expiry, so you never know whether yesterday's breakout was just an expiry play or was it a real breakout.

Now it looks like IT will break all records. Yesterday infy was supposed to react but other than infy rest all IT reacted. L&T infotech shot up 4% when it was expecting its result which came aftermarkets.

Wipro, L&T infotech came with results and it was good. Let's see if the rally will continue today as well. ADR is up by 1%

Janet Yellen says that there will be more inflation before things cool.

The OPEC has decided to raise production and now the crude seems to be cooling which is good for India.

Tomorrow we have HDFC bank coming out with numbers. If these numbers are good then Monday you can expect the banks to rally. In fact, they have rallied a lot but they still have room to rally.

The midcap stocks, especially the IT stocks are rallying. Looks like the midcaps rally will not stop anytime soon.

 MY TRADES

  1. Yesterday was a good expiry. Was able to make around 2% for the week. Let's see what this week has for me.
  2. Now I will be initiating trades in stock options as we have less number of days and some stocks have high IV.
  3. Today I will be executing the below trade in Nifty.
    1. -1 X 16000ce
    2. -1 X 16000pe
    3. +1 X 15800pe
  4. Nowadays, I am not doing many butterflies as option premiums are low.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. The US markets closed in the mix. Dow was flat but the Nasdaq lost slightly more. We need to see if that will be translated to Indian IT also or not.
  2. Europe closed in the red. 
  3. Today the Asian markets are also in the red but SGX is suggesting a +ve start. 
CRUDE AND $
  1. Opec has decided to increase production so crude is falling. The fear of it going to $80 can now be ruled out.
  2. This is a very good sentiment positive for India.
FII AND DII
  1. FII sold for 264cr and DII bought for 464cr.
  2. FII selling for a long time now but markets are moving higher and higher. Are retailers getting trapped??


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