Trade setup for 26th August



 Finally, we are at the end of the monthly expiry. This month was a difficult month to manage as the premiums were very low and volatility was high. Even today, the nifty ATM straddle is at 80 even before markets open. It will open at 70-75 after markets open. Trading these markets are slightly difficult and not possible to take a non-directional call.

Now I am doing more intraday trades. So it does not matter whether it is expiry day or any other day. But the expiry day should be a little careful as the volatility will be high.

Coming to markets, we made another all-time high yesterday and then there was a small pullback in the 2nd half. The banks have again become weak. I expected it to make that all-time high this expiry, but looks like that may not happen. Now I am losing confidence that it may happen in the next month also.

All eyes are on the Jackson hole symposium. The global markets are stable.

South Korea has increased the interest rate. This is the first country that has done that. Will other countries also follow that.

Afgan crisis is widening. Still, there is no ceasefire and stability. All countries are rushing to evacuate their citizens.

The covid cases are also gradually rising. Kerala cases are rising and cases in kids are also on the rise. Is this the beginning of 3rd wave? 

The automakers yesterday did show their concern and told that the demand for autos may not go higher. The chip shortage issue is also hindering the production. They urged govt to reduce the taxes on autos. All these happened in the SIAM meet.

MY TRADES

  1. I closed all my stock option position in profit. Bajajfinance, Adani ent, SRF all closed in green. The best part is only SRF behaved the way I wanted it to. Bajfin and Adani went opposite to my view but I was able to end in green.
  2. Yesterday in intraday trading, I was able to make a profit of almost 60k
  3. Now seeing the risk-reward and all the data, sept may be the month of the bears. So taking this trade 
    1. +2 X 16600pe
    2. -1 X 16700pe
INTERNATIONAL MAREKTS
  1. All gloal markets were flat ahead of the Jackson hole. 
  2. Today morning the Asian markets are weak and SGX is suggesting a flat to -ve opening.
FII AND DII
  1. They are just selling every opportunity. Even yesterday they sold for 1000+cr and DII also sold for 150cr
  2. From 1 week FII have sold for around 5k cr
CRUDE 
  1. Crude is rising and is now at $72. This is because the US inventories are reducing.
EXPIRY SETUP
  1. Today is monthly expiry. So anything can happen. Better to keep volumes low.
  2. Looks like nifty will not go beyond 16700 and nifty may not go beyond 36k
  3. I will be creating spreads aboe that to begin. If that is challenged then I will convert that to iron condor else will pirymid the positions.

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