Trade setup for 30th September



 Yesterday was another volatile day. Markets went everywhere. Similar to the day before yesterday, markets fell and then recovered in the second half. Banknifty is recovering more than 500 points intraday. The markets are no doubt volatile. Vix is almost 19 now. The premiums are very good for the option traders.

The major losers yesterday were the banks, Asian paints. Reliance is still managing to trade above 2500. 

Now the sentiment is falling gradually. That's what the vix is suggesting. This is happening in the world market as well. Even the FII sentiment is also suggesting the same thing. Is it profit booking or global risk-off?? We need more clarity to go short. In this rally, this kind of dip has trapped the bears. Let's see if 20 DMA will be protected or broken on a closing basis. That will give some clarity on what could happen. 20 DMA is at 17500. If there is any bounce at this then the bull rally might continue and it will be the time to go long.

This quarter was a difficult quarter to trade, especially in the options as the vix was low and the premiums were ultra-low and the volatility was at the highest. Now the premiums are good and it's the time to go aggressive. Last quarter we had to play it defensively. 

Looks like Vodafone is doing something to survive. This was exactly what I told in the video which I had done sometime back. You can check that video on my youtube channel. It was a do or die situation for them. Anything would have benefitted the company. I won't be surprised if it goes to 20 very soon. I have invested more than 1.5lak in this stock. Still, it is a lottery bet only. Anything can happen in this. Better to be safe by investing the amount which you are willing to lose.

Invesco which is one of the investors of zee has approached the NCLT for an AGM. Today NCLT will be discussing that. So zee will be in focus.

China coal and power crisis has made the power companies here to rally. NTPC, Coal India are all major gainers yesterday. 

Coming to the US markets, Nasdaq is falling for the 4th day consecutively. The IT which contributed to the major rally is now correcting. 

MY TRADES

  1. For the first time, I think, all the stocks which I sold last week have fallen except reliance. For the first time, I might have got the timing right. Now I am sitting with cash and waiting for 20 DMA to be broken or bounce.
  2. As an option trader, we love high vix and high premium. yesterday I did the below trade for today's expiry. I will be doing it for the October series as well today
    1. -1 X 17700pe
    2. -1 X 17700ce
    3. +1 X 18000ce
    4. +1 X 17000pe
  3. Today I will be doing a video on the trade which one can do for October series and also I will be 

INTERNATIONAL MAREKTS

  1. Dow closed in the mild green but nasdaq closed in mild red. 
  2. Europe was however in the green. Most of the European indices gained more than 0.5%
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the red. Hong kong markets have fallen more than a percent. 
  4. SGX is suggesting a -ve opening.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude slips and is now back to $78.
  2. $ is at Rs 74.14
FII AND DII
  1. FII sold for 1900cr and DII bought for 3200cr


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