Trade setup for 17th November

 Now the weakness seems to be kicking in. Nifty closed at 18000. We need to see if there will be a bounce here or will the fall continue. I believe that the fall will continue. 

This week the markets were interesting. It started around 17900, went all the way to 18200 and is now back to 17900(SGX is suggesting). If 17900 is taken out then the monthly expiry can be somewhere near 17500.

Now the inflation fears are to be seen. Yesterday, Asian paints management told that they will hike prices by 4-5% from dec. Asian paints which was 40rs down became 40rs green. Then by the end, it was around 20rs in the red.

The only sector which was in the green was the autos as the chip shortage issue seems to be over and autos can resume its production as normal. Maruti shot up 8%. tata motor shot 3%

The steel and other metal prices are falling globally. So the metal stocks are falling. It seems that the demand is falling. 

The banks are very weak. ICICI bank before the results was at 750. Then it shot 11% after the results and now it is back to almost 760. All this drama in just 10 days.

FII were not buying which is what I was telling because if they buy they usually buy into stocks like icici, hdfc,RIL, bajfin. These stocks never rallied in last few days. Many told that the bottom has formed and a uprally will begin again. Also, 18300 was a very strong resistance as per charts. So I kept a buffer of that which proved to be right.

Japan oct export data was lower than expected. So today the Asian markets are also weak. 

It looks like many have got Paytm IPO. In the grey market, it is trading with a premium fall. So most likely it will open negatively. But you never know. Let's see if the retailers rush to buy this as well or not. As I told you, the issue is big and not possible to rally like other IPOs. 

The cryptos are also falling. Bitcoin is again below $60k. 

Now all the EV startups valuations are more than the traditional auto companies. New EV company Lucid valuation is more than Ford. Is this the end of the century-old leaders??

Stats show that Warren buffet has been selling in the stock market for the past 1 year. Elon musk has began to sell. So you join the dots. I am not telling that there will be a crash, but you can get a better deal incase you wait for some time. I won't be surprised if nifty is near 17k by this year-end. I may be biased as my trades are on the short side.


  1. I did some adjustments to my trades to increase the profit as I was in a decent profit.
  2. The ICICI bank trade which I took after the results is already in a profit of more than 20% of the capital deployed. 
  3. If 17900 is taken out today on the lower side then I will aggressively sell 18000ce for tomo expiry.
  4. Most of the call ratio spread which I initiated is in good profit. 
  1. The US markets were mixed. Dow was flat but Nasdaq shot up.
  2. Europe closed in the green.
  3. Asian markets are in the red today after the japan export data was out. 
  4. SGX is suggesting a 70 point gap down.
  1. There is fall in the crude demand and crude is below $82.
  2. $ is at Rs 74
  1. Again FII has started selling. Yesterday the sold for 500+cr and DI bought for around 500+cr