Trade setup for 25th November



 This is the first time I am seeing the institutions selling so aggressively. Even during peak covid times they did not sell so much. Not sure what is so wrong which is making them sell so much.

Now the covid fears are back. The cases are rising in some of the European countries. Some countries have also gone for a partial lockdown in Europe. Is this the reason for FII selling??

Yesterday was another bad day where nifty fell 250 points from its intraday high. As I told before, nowadays 250-300 point intraday movement has become very common.

IT, Autos, reliance all closed in the red. Paytm is now moving up for the past 2 days. I would prefer to stay away from these stocks. As I told you before, if it falls 50% of the issue price then I will invest little.

Many stocks which were in the green finally ended in the red including Reliance. Now Reliance is restructuring its gas assets. 

Now Gautam Adani is richer than Ambani. Many Adani stocks shot up in a few days taking his valuation higher.  

OLA's e-scooter online booking has again been postponed. Now, this is raising serious concerns as to what is being done under the hood. Now many people in the top management are quitting the company.

The cryptocurrency bill has got some clarity now. Any current which is not given by RBI is not a legal tender. So all major cryptos like bitcoin, ether etc are illegal as per govt. Now let's see if that will be banned or not?

Stats show that India's population is decreasing. The fertility rate is now at 2. It was 2.2 sometime back and 3.2 a decade back. I will be coming out with a  detailed explanation of the impact of this.

Fed feels that they should raise rates if inflation increases at the same rate. So, it is certain that rates will be hiked very soon. Probably FII is betting on that and selling all their stake. Markets will fall if that happens. Use that opportunity to buy into quality stocks to build a portfolio. As I told you before, I don't have much equity holding now. Waiting for the right time to invest in the markets. 

Elon musk sold $1billion worth of shares on Tuesday. 

MY TRADES

  1. There was a good lesson which I learnt in this expiry. It is not to be greedy. I had executed the butterfly strategy this month and was sitting with a decent profit. I did some adjustments to increase the profit and now markets have fallen and now it's in danger zone. Today is the last day. Let's see if I can come out in green. 
  2. I have sold the PE of many stocks like icici bank, maruti, bajfin, reliance for next month. Will take delivery if the strike is breached.
  3. Since markets were volatile for the entire week. I am not expecting the same kind of volatility for today. Even the SGX is suggesting it. I will be taking the directional call by selling either pe/ce spread for today.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. The techs gained in the US and the nasdaq closed in the green. Dow was flat. Today the dow futures are in the green.
  2. Europe was flat.
  3. Today the Asian markets are also flat. SGX is also flat.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is at $82
  2. $ is at Rs 74
FII AND DII
  1. For this month they have sold for 23kcr
  2. In last 6 days they have sold for 18kcr
  3. Yesterday they sold for more than 5kcr
  4. It looks like they are booking their profits as soon as possible. Hope the retailers are not trapped.

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