Trade setup for 17th December

 Sorry for not coming out with the blog for 3 days now. I was bust with other things. Coming to markets, again the markets are becoming volatile. They have again started to fall as FII have again started selling in huge numbers. 

Yesterday the US fed did try to give some good news to the markets and the markets did react positively but again yesterday the Nasdaq has fallen badly. This is clearly a sell on rise market. You can see that the promoters of new IPO companies are selling after the anchor locking period is over and most of the IPO are OFS(offer for sale) which means that the companies just want to take the advantage of the bull market. 

The bank of England has raised the interest rate. So it is pretty certain that the inflation problems are real and very soon you can expect the US fed to do that as well. They have told that they are planning to raise rates 3 times in 2022. Obviously even RBI will have to follow the same. Maybe FII know something which we do not know and they are selling every opportunity.

16900 is very very strong support and if this is taken out then I feel that markets will fall rapidly. Most of my trades are on the bearish side. I will take aggressive short trades if 16900 is taken out convincingly and with follow-through.

Byju planning for a US IPO and it is evaluated at $48 billion now. A few months back it was $22 billion. At this rate, it will even beat Google and Apple :)

The Covid cases are again rising in many cities. We need to wait and watch if there will be a major wave that will force the economy to go on lockdown again?

MY TRADES

1. This week expiry was good and I was able to make a decent profit. I have stopped putting MTM screenshots as it is not the realised profit and intraday positions will be low.
2. Frankly, for this month, I have not done much adjustment to the butterfly trade which I had initiated in the beginning. We have 2 more weeks and now I am planning to do some adjustments so that the profit increases.
3. The markets were very volatile for the first half of the month and I am expecting it to cool in the second half as FII will be low, so one can execute the below risk defined strategy
1. -1 X 17000pe
2. -1 X 17000ce
3. +1 X 16000pe
4. +1 X 18000ce

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

1. The US markets were flat but the techs got sold as the fear of interest rate hike. Most of the tech companies are valuated in a way that they will make money in the future. If there is a fear of interest rate hike then the easy money availability will fall and this has caused the tech sell off in the US. Apple fell 4%, Adobe fell 10%. 
2. Europe closed in the green and gained more than 1%
3. Today the Asian markets are in the red. SGX is suggesting a -ve start. I am eagerly waiting for 17k,16900 to be taken out so that I can short and make fresh investments when markets are at low.

CRUDE AND $

1. Crude is at $74.85
2. $ is at Rs 75

FII AND DII

1. In Jan 2020-april 2020(peak covid), fii sold for 90kcr. Now in the last 3 months ie oct-dec, FII has sold for 90kcr. Will they now become buyers or will the selling continue? The problem is handing over the markets at this point to retailers is not a good sign. Retailers will ultimately screw things up.
2. Yesterday they sold for 1400+cr and DII bought for 1500+cr. I will make fresh investments only when FII turn buyers on a weekly basis.