The day before yesterday, we closed below 17k. I was looking for follow through on the downside yesterday. But there was no follow-through yesterday and nifty shot up and closed in the green. So I was confident that the markets would head higher and 17k would be strong support for this week. I mentioned the same for my students yesterday in the weekly inner circle meet as well. But now the entire game has changed after US markets opened yesterday. There was an omicron case found in the US. The first case was detected in California and changed the entire math. Dow fell 1000 points after the news broke to close in the red.
Today the Asian markets are in the red but there has been a significant recovery in the Asian markets. SGX is suggesting that 17k will be in the danger zone. Yesterday, I have sold a decent quantity of 17k pe. Today I may have to do a lot of fire fighting.
Crude is correcting and today you have the OPEC meeting where they will discuss some steps to increase the price. So this meet is keenly watched globally.
The scary picture is FII are selling continuously. I did not expect them to be sellers yesterday where we had a bounce, but that did not happen. All are telling that Omicron uncertainty has made them sell. I don't agree with that as they are selling for the entire month of November. This Omicron thing broke a few days back. So did FII know a month back that there would be Omicron?? The fact is that the markets are overbought as they have almost tripled in the last 1-2 years and now there is some correction which is in place.
I have started investing again in the markets when it was below 17k the day before yesterday. I always do it in phases. When nifty was 17k last time, I started selling where I sold some at 17k, 17.5k and cleared all the portfolio at 18k. Now it is at 17k and most of my stocks which I had sold is at a discount of around 10%. So now I will invest in phases. I invested 10% of my capital. For every 500 point fall, I will add 10% to my investment kitty. Keep it simple. Dont complicate things. Nobody can catch the bottom or highs. Always do it in phases. I am not bullish at the moment, that's why I invested only 10%.
The November auto sales are very bad. Eicher, bajaj all reported 20% fall in sales. I am sure that even the real estate sales are also on the same lines. I will be releasing 2 videos on real estate investment and my analysis. Dont miss to watch that before you take any decision on real estate investment.
Trade deficit numbers are out and at a record high in November.
Delhi has slashed VAT on petrol. So petrol will be cheaper there. Will others follow??
Now Vodafone has broken out of that 9-11rs range. I am pyramiding on this. I already have a huge investment in this and this is for the long term. I had made a video some time back telling why I am a fan of this stock. I got a lot of criticism when it fell. Now I am sitting with more than 25% profit which not many stocks have given in the last 1 year.
Its reliance is making the markets the dance. One day it is green and markets are green. One day it is in red and markets are in red.
MY TRADES
- I sold decent quantity of 17k pe for today expiry. Today I should fight that. To hedge that I also sold 17350ce as well. I will closing that to get more margins to fight today. Today will be an interesting day for me.
- I will be investing more in vodafone idea in case if it comes below 11 anytime.
- Yesterday I executed a butterfly trade in my account for the monthly series. I did share the trade with my students in the weekly inner circle meet.
- Dow lost 400+poitns. Nasdaq lost more than 250 points.
- Europe closes in the green.
- Today the Asian markets are in the red. SGX is suggesting a 100 point cut to begin with.
- Crude is falling due to demand reduction anticipation which may happen due to the new varient. Crude is now at $69
- $ is at Rs 75
- FII sold for 2700+cr and DII bought for 3500cr
- Today the first hour low is the crucial point. I don think that will be broken for the entire day. So after first hour, I will be creating a PE spread. I am expecting a recovery in the 2nd half because yesterday was a strong day. I am assuming that the strongness will continue.
- I still believe that 17k may not be taken out for the day. Will wait for first hour before I do any adjustment because recovery might come.
- Keep an eye on expiry stocks like HDFC twins, bajaj twins, RIL, ICICI. That will give you an idea as to what might happen to the market direction.
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