Trade setup for 21st Feb



 Looks like France has been able to talk to Russia to cool the situation in the Russia-Ukaraine issue. The US officials say that Russia can attack Ukaraine anytime. Soon, Putin and Biden will be meeting. The meeting will be set if Russia does not invade Ukraine. It looks like there will be a ceasefire soon. As I told you, Russia cannot afford to attach when the entire world is against that move.  Diplomacy and talks will solve this soon. 

I think it's better not to trade for next month as we have a lot of events like election results, LIC IPO, US FED meet. 

This is the expiry week and you can expect markets to be volatile. Keep an eye on stocks that make moves on expiry week like bajaj twins, hdfc twins, icici etc

Covid is almost over. The new cases are falling day by day and all countries have now opened up and tourism industry seems to be back. I am planning a trip to Ooty next month. Will be doing destination trading with low volumes from there.

The next bitcoin bull run may not happen till 2024 because the bitcoin reward which miners get will be halved after regular intervals and this process is called halving. Whenever it has happened in the past, it has shot up.

Oil is falling which means that the war may not happen. Oil knows better than all of us. Dont get carried away by news channels. They add a lot of masalas.

MY TRADES

  1. On Friday, 17300 straddle premium was 400. I blindly shorted them. I am already sitting with a decent profit. Lets see if that will be wiped out today or not. 
  2. I personally will not be surprised if we close in the green. SGX is suggesting a gapdown. I will be selling PE below 200 DMA which is 16800. Any recovery in the market will give me wonderful profit. I will carry them to expiry if markets close in the green today. 
  3. My ITC trade which I took for the budget is in a loss of 10k. I will be adding more legs today to protect that. This was the trade which did not work this time. But remember, next year the chances of increasing the tax on tobacco is higher. The trades that we take next year budget will be slightly aggressive on the lower side.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. Today US markets are on a holiday. 
  2. On Friday, all markets were in the red.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the red. It looks like we will open in the red and then take it from there.
  4. SGX is -100 now. 
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is at $92 and is falling even when there is geopolitical situation which means there is no major concern in the situation. 
  2. $ is at Rs 75.
FII AND DII
  1. FII sold for 2500+cr and DII bought for 1900+cr
  2. Now, this has become common. I have stopped investing as I feel that there is something fishy that we are not able to catch. FII selling so drastically is not something which one has to take is easy. My exposure to equity is very very less. I will think of buying only when FII start buying. Indian retailers showing so much enthusiasm is not something I am comfortable with.





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