Trade setup for 23rd Feb



 We are 2 days away from the expiry and markets are all over the place. There is a new twist and turns in the Russia-Ukaraine issue. 

I was pretty sure that Russia would not attack using the military as NATO power was stronger than them. So now they have found ways to attack Ukaraine. Its divide and rule. They have now identified the independence of some of the places in Ukaraine. Now the US has put some sanctions on the Russian banks and some rich in Russia. 

The Russian markets fell 22% the day before yesterday and yesterday it fell 10% and recovered. Russian vix at 80+. It went up to 95.

Yesterday the US markets fell and the Russian markets went up after the US put sanctions on Russia. The country which is imposing sanctions is in the red but the country on which the sanction has been put is in the green. This market is seriously crazy. 😂😂😂

Oil almost kissed $100 and has now slightly retracted. Even a slight escalation in the geopolitical issue will make it 100.

Now it's almost clear that the Russia-Ukaraine fight will not be in the military. It will be diplomatic where Russia will promote separatists in the Ukaraine and there will be trade benefits etc given and US will cut trades with Russia as a protest. So let's see where this will settle.

The US markets closed in the red for the 4th day. S&P is now in the correction territory which means it has fallen 10% from its highs. 

MY TRADES

  1. We are bouncing from the 200 DMA and as I told 200DMA will be protected for this month. Not sure about the next month. I have blindly sold huge quantities of PE below 200 DMA. Yesterday I was slightly scared when markets fell. But then there was recovery and things look fine now. I am already sitting in wonderful profit. 
  2. Now as the Vix is high, the intraday MTM profit or losses can give shocks. You need to get used to it. Day before yesterday, I was sitting in a loss of 10lak. Yesterday I am sitting with a profit of more than 8lak. Today that is going to increase as per SGX.
  3. I had taken the below trade yesterday. I have taken a decent quantity today and it looks like I will be in good profit. 
    1. -1 X 17200ce
    2. -1 X 17200pe
  4. The ITC trade which I took is in a loss of around 25k. The problem was, after budget it shot up as I was expecting it to fall. I did a lot of adjustments and then it fell drastically. Now I am fighting badly in that to reduce the loss as much as possible but that is not happening. It looks like I will have to close that in loss. 
  5. Today I will close some of the legs on my trade and will be initiating trades for the march expiry.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. The US markets are falling. 
  2. Europe closed in the red.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the green. US futures are also in the green. 
  4. SGX is 100point in the green.
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is at $96. I will start shorting the market if it trades at $100
  2. $ is at Rs 75
FII AND DII
  1. No wonder. They are just selling everyday and the same story continues.
  2. FII sold for 3200cr and DII bought for 4100+cr


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