Trade setup for 8th March

 It's nice to be back on the trading desk but the market volatility is not something that is good. Markets are all over the place. TheNasdaq has entered the bear market territory. Dow is in the correction phase.(5% is a pullback, 10% is correction and 20% is bear market).

Russia and Ukraine officials will be meeting in Turkey. 

The commodities are surging due to the supply crunch. Even in India, the commodities companies are surging higher. Don't buy these companies now as once this issue is cleared, it will be these companies that will fall the most. Even if you trade, make sure you exit them soon.

Yesterday nickel shot up 70% in 1 session. 

Everyone wanted a dip and now you have got one. Now, not many will have the guts to enter the market. SIP is good for the market but at the same time, a systematic withdrawal plan should also be in place. From now, I will be investing in phases for every 500 point fall in the nifty. No one can catch the bottom of the market. The best indicator that I use is the FII data. The markets cannot go higher if FII sells like this. When they turn buyers, that can probably be the bottom.

One broker in the US shared the data where 67% of the positions are shorts which means the markets can fall further. Now every move is dependent on the news. Any slight positive news in the Russia-Ukraine will trigger short covering. Any slight disappointment will take the markets lower. Trading in this market is not something which I suggest. The best trade now is to stay away from the market.

The elections are over and exit polls are out. Expect petrol prices to be hiked soon. They may not increase it in one shot. But there will definitely be an increase as international crude has shot up drastically. 

Exit polls show BJP in UP and Manipur and AAP in Punjab. We will know things in another 2 more days. Will this take over the international events which are happening?? I don't think so.

SGX was up 150 points yesterday night before the US markets opened. Today morning it was down by 200 points and now it is down by 100 points. It's all over the place. It's very difficult to guess the direction of the markets now.

In the US a lot of tech stocks have fallen more than 75%. 

Yesterday the US markets fell drastically. Dow fell more than 800 points with the fear of inflation now as crude is soaring. 


  1. I have sold PE of some stocks like ITC, ICICI bank, Asian paints. I will manage and will take delivery. 
  2. I sold almost all my stock holding when nifty was at 18000. After that, it went up to almost 18500. Now its at almost 16k. Always have a systematic investment plan and also systematic withdrawal plan.
  3. I will be executing the below trades today
    1. +1 X 16000pe
    2. -1 X 15500pe
    3. -1 X 15400pe
    4. -1 X 15300pe
  1. European markets had a wonderful recovery yesterday and that gave some hope till the US markets opened. 
  2. Dax shot up 5% from its low. Then the US markets opened lower and again the sentiment became negative.
  3. Today the SGX is suggesting a -ve start. Lets see if buying comes back now.
  1. Crude is almost at $125. Can you believe that 2 years back it was traded in the negative? 
  2. $ is almost at Rs 77
  1. FII sold for almost 7000cr for 2nd day.