Trade setup for 25th April



 It looks like it is going to be another red day today. At least that's what SGX is suggesting. Its down more than 200 points now.

ICICI bank came out with numbers over the weekend and it looks good. So we need to see if this will support the banknifty and nifty or will it add more fuel on the lower side.

After all the drama, RIL and the Future deal is off. Not sure what is the status of the deal with Amazon. Till now, in the last few trading days, it was RIL that was giving strong support. Now with this news, if RIL starts falling then not sure who will come to the rescue. 

Now inflation and a rate hike are getting serious. There is a fed meet in the month of May and it is expected that the rate can be hiked by around 50bps. Have the markets factored in that or is there more fall.. I am expecting more falls. y?? Simple, nifty fell below 200 and 50dma. Recovered and went above that. No follow-through and is now falling below that. It's a clear sign of a weak market. Dont think of investing in this market. Let the bottom be formed. The mild recovery which took the markets above 50 and 200dma was led by RIL. Now that is also falling. It's a no-brainer that you need to use every rally to sell into. Today you don't short when nifty falls 200 points. Wait for recovery and then short. 

France has elected Macron again. It was expected. Markets are not so enthused with this. Let's see if CAC goes into the green.

Now the fight between the Twitter board and Elon musk is getting ugly. Let's see if he can acquire it.

Elon Musk is having a bad conversation with Bill gates as well as bill gates has shorted Tesla stocks worth half a billion.

LIC ipo stake which will be diluted is reduced to 3.5% from 6%. A lot of private companies were intelligent enough for coming out with IPO during bull market and looting the public. Govt has been slow and now they are in the backseat. The price is reduced, stake is reduced.

MY TRADES

  1. I have executed some short strangles for this monthly series. 
  2. I have sold 3000ce in RIL for next month as it has rallied a lot. Looks like today I will be in a decent profit.
  3. If closing is around 17k today then I will sell PE of a lot of companies for next month. I will take delivery if it becomes ITM as I am sitting with cash for investment purposes.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. The US markets fell drastically. Dow fell close to 1000 points and Nasdaq fell close to 2.5%
  2. Today the futures are also in the red.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the red. They have lost more than 2%
  4. SGX is suggesting a fall of 200 points.
FII AND DII
  1. FII sold for 2500+cr and DII bought for just 1600+cr
  2. Dont even think of entering the market with fresh investments when FII are selling like this. Retail and DII cannot support for long. 
CRUDE AND $
  1. The new covid restriction in the China has reduced consumption and crude is falling.
  2. Crude is now at $103
  3. $ is at Rs76.5


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