We have 2 more sessions for this month to end and I can tell you this is one of the most peculiar series which I have seen. Things that were most peculiar.
1. Nifty moving everywhere. It fell almost 1500 points, recovered 500 points, again fell 500 points, and is now recovering.
2. Nifty futures(current month and next month) are at a discount but nifty is moving 100+ points.
3. FII sell figures on the monthly basis is 54kcr but markets have fallen only 1500 points. During Covid, they sold for 65kcr and nifty fell 3k points.
The best thing about this market is that you can hope for the history to repeat, but it repeats in a new flavor every time.
For now, it looks like the bottom has been formed. We had a very volatile expiry and on Friday, we did have a good follow-through as well. Today as well there will be a gap up as per SGX. In 3 days, we have rallied almost 600 points.
Now, the sentiment seems to be changing. So, I am currently bullish on this market(obviously with a hedge). But I am still not investing fresh money into equities. As I told you before, I will wait for the FII to turn buyers. I am not very comfortable in FII selling and markets going higher. I feel it's a trap.
China has removed most of the covid restrictions. So this is good news from the economic point of view. So now crude is also rising as China's consumption is set to increase.
S.Korea has approved $49 billion in extra spending for the budget.
The European countries are in a major confusion as to support Ukraine or Russia. They don't want to support Russia but they can't put an embargo on Russian oil and gas.
The US markets had one of the best weeks in the last week. US markets snapped a 7week losing streak. Dow has closed in the green for the last 7 days. It looks like, even the US markets have made a bottom. It has crossed 33% of Fibonacci retracement.
On Friday, IT and banks came back strongly. It looks like the Nasdaq is also recovering so are the IT stocks here. I have told many times that we just replicate the US markets.
This month we have a FED meeting and it is obvious that they will raise the interest by 0.5%. Markets will not be surprised if that happens. Everything will depend on the commentary. By chance, if FED increases more or less then that may be a surprise.
Today you have LIC results. This is the first result after listing. I have bought 15 shares at 800 odd. Let's see what will happen today. My investment is for the long term.
Tata Motors is buying the Ford plant. So this stock will be in focus today.
MY TRADES
- Vix is high and premiums are also good. I have sold strangles in weekly and monthly expiries.
- I have taken the below trade in Infosys
- +2 X 1460ce
- -1 X 1440ce
- I have sold huge puts in banknifty. I don't think banknifty will fall further.
- Now all markets are on fire.US markets gained more than 500 points on Friday and Nasdaq gained more than 3%
- Europe closes in the green.
- Today the Asian market is on fire. SGX is up by 145 points. Japan is up by more than 2%
- FII sold for almost 2kcr and DII bought for 2700cr
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