Trade setup for 15th June

 The US CPI data came 3 days back and in the last 3 days, all things have changed. Nifty has lost almost 800 points in 3 sessions. Nasdaq has fallen around 10% in 3 sessions. Bitcoin has fallen around 30%. Bitcoin is now at $21k. It was close to $32k a week back.

Now all eyes are on the FOMC meeting today night. Today the US markets will react to the FED outcome and commentary. The inflation is red hot and many analysts are telling that FED may even hike the rate by 75bps. The majority are expecting 50 to 60bps. Now all kinds of speculation is going around. 

Star got the IPL TV rights. Viacom got digital rights.

Dow has been falling for 5 days and usually, the FED outcomes have taken the market higher. Will that be the case this time as well or will it be an exception?? We need to wait and watch.

There was news that Bajaj auto has deferred its buyback and the stock fell 7%. Then there was a news that Rajiv Bajaj told that it has not deferred it but they are discussing it further. Then the stock recovered 3% and closed by losing 4%. This was one of the major stocks that took nifty lower yesterday.

Reliance is weak despite crude being higher. They even hiked their jio tariffs. Despite that, the price is trading lower and is contributing significantly in taking nifty lower.

There was WPI inflation and it has come at 15.88% which was almost at the expected.

Now S&P index is officially in the bear territory which means it has fallen 20% from its high. Nasdaq is down by 33% from its high. We are down by almost 15%. So if we are to catch up the US markets then we need to fall another 5% or the US markets need to recover 5%.

Some countries which adopted Bitcoin are now worrying as the volatility in this asset is high. El Salvador finance minister told that the country's exposure is low.

Now many IT companies are firing their staff. Many crypto exchanges are firing people. Coinbase has fired 18% of its employees.

I am expecting some good news from FED and markets may recover. Usually, if there is a huge fall before the event then there won't be much movement after the event as markets usually factor into the worst-case scenario. But if the event comes out with slight good news then the recovery will be equally strong. This is just a guideline, not a rule. The probability of markets going lower after the event is also a possibility. But, I will take my chances on taking long trades.


  1. I had bought 1 lot of banknifty futures. As I told, I added more to that and converted that to covered call and this is the state of that. I had bought 8 set. Yesterday I made it 4 set. Still I am sitting with a loss of almost 10k. Lets see how this goes by this month

  2. I have sold more PE of stocks and will be taking delivery. I am expecting some good news from FED and markets may recover. 
  3. I will be buying some nifty bees from next week after the fed outcome.
  1. The US markets were flat. Dow fell 150 points and Nasdaq gained just 20 points. Today the US futures are in the green. 
  2. Europe closed in red.
  3. Asian markets are in the flat zone as all waiting for FED
  4. SGX is flat.
  1. FII sold for 4500cr and DII bought for 3800cr
  1. $ is at Rs 78
  2. Crude is at $121