Nowadays, market movements are very very volatile. Playing with neutral strategies is not working these days, especially in the last 2-3 months. Markets are killing both sides.
Yesterday the expiry was very volatile as expected. Nifty opened around +50, went upto +200 then came to red of almost -60. From there it shot up and closed by gaining +150 points. When nifty went up +200 points, the deep OTM puts will be peanuts. Then when it comes to red, the peanuts will become cashew nuts and you will be sitting at a huge loss. You close your trade-in loss and then the markets recover. Luckily, I took some directional trades and it worked in my favor and I was able to close in good profit.
Not just this expiry. The last expiry, nifty gapped up almost 150 points and from there it fell almost 450 points in a single direction.
I have almost completed the algo trade which I have been working on for the last 2-3 months. Looks like it can be deployed from next month. It will be intradday and has a good risk-reward. Let's see how it will work. Currently, I am implementing them in my account manually. The algo will help me to implement in client accounts and manage the risk. I will explain that in a special blog and video.
For now, it looks like 15300 is strong support and if that is taken out then the fall will be strong.
Yesterday the Autos and Banks came strongly. It was Reliance,PSU and metals which were weak. As I told before, the FED event was over and from now there might be consolidation or short covering. But taking a decision on hope is not the right thing. Now we feel that we should have gone long when markets were at 15100-200.
Now 15700-800 was strong support before. Markets fell and went below that and now that is the resistance. Let's see today if we can take out that or not. If that is taken then 16k for this expiry is possible.
US PMI numbers were bad. The FED has decided that they will hike rates no matter what happens to the markets.
In Maharashtra, the govt may dissolve and there will be political uncertainty. Maharashtra is the main state in India, so that may have an impact on the stock market.
For the first time, tata nexon EV caught fire in Mumbai. But tata motors did not care and it was in green. They were fast enough to come out and tell that they are looking into it.
Ukraine is now officially a part of EU. Now it will be difficult for Russia to carry out more attacks. Looks like there might be stability here.
Crude oil prices are also falling indicating that the war may not get escalated further. Recently, the US reduced the taxes on the gas asking companies to pass on the benefit to the people.
MY TRADES
- Now the IT is recovering as Nasdaq is recovering. The beaten-down stocks will be recovering the most. So I am long on TCS for next month.
- +3 X 3300ce
- -1 X 3200ce
- I am waiting for metals to bottom out. Then I will be long on Hindalco and tata steel.
- I will keep my volumes low for this expiry as its getting volatile. Anyway, this is the monthly expiry and I am already doing a lot of firefighting with all the trades which I am having.
- US markets closed in the green. Nasdaq is recovering and also the bitcoin. I feel bitcoin movement can be used to judge the direction of the markets. Dow gained 200 points and nasda gained around 1.5%
- Europe also closed in the green.
- Today the Asian markets are in the green. SGX is suggesting a 100 point gap.
- Same story but yesterday the DII bought more than FII sold.
- Fii sold for 2300cr and DII bought for 2400cr
- Crude is below $110
- $ is below Rs 78
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