Yesterday we had the RBI policy and RBI hiked the rate by 50 bps. It was expected that the rate would be hiked. It was the number which all were interested in.
Markets as usual was volatile in yesterday's session. After the policy, banknifty shot up almost 500 points from days low and then in the second half it gave up all the gains and closed in the red.
Today you have the ECB meeting and obviously, they are going to hike rates. All we need to see is what they do with the bond-buying.
People say that trading is easy and adjustment is easy. I deployed 2 lak in a small trade on Monday. That went to a loss of 10k. In order to save that, I started doing adjustments and till yesterday I have deployed 8lk and as of yesterday, it was in a profit of 2k. 2k is not a huge ROI, but it's just a mental satisfaction that I closed the trade in the green. I had to deploy 4x my initial capital to save myself. So in this game, you need knowledge, guts, conviction, confidence, and more importantly money power. Even if you do not have one thing, it's difficult to survive in this game.
Nifty closed below 16400 which was strong support. Now the next support is 20 DMA which is at 16250. If that is taken out then, we may go below 16k. Now nifty has closed in the green for 4 consecutive days.
The problem is the US markets. They are also going down. Now all eyes on FOMC meet which is on this 14th. Let's see if anything changes the sentiment there. FED is known for changing sentiments. So I am expecting markets to recover after that. So I will take some bullish trades for next week or in the monthly expiry.
Another worrying factor is that the covid cases are rising and offices are opening up. Stock market may not have a knee jerk reaction if there is another wave.
Markets are falling gradually. Whenever markets fall, they fall drastically and they do not give any opportunity for people to exit. Now this gradual fall means there might be short covering soon. But before short-covering, there will be a big red candle. Or, this fall will fall a lot more gradually.
MY TRADES
- Most of my trades for this week is in good shape. It is going to be a lazy Thursday for me as nothing much to do.
- For next week I will take the below trade
- +1 X 16200pe
- -2 X 16000pe
- -2 X 15900pe
- -2 X 15800pe
- Some days back, I had taken a call ratio spread. It is in good profit. So I sold some PE as RIL has fallen more. The margin used will be negligible as well.
- If nifty falls more than 100 points then I may sell 16100pe for today's expiry.
- US markets closed in the red. Dow lost more than 250 points and nasdaq almost 100 points.
- Europe closed in the red.
- Today the asian markets are in the red and SGX is suggesting a 100 point gap down.
- Crude is going higher. It is now at $125
- $ is at Rs 77.8
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