Trade setup for 14th July

 The talk of the town was the US inflation. Even when our inflation data was out, we did not break our heads so much as we are breaking our heads for the US inflation.

Yesterday, the data came and it was very hot. It came at 9% which was way high than expected.

Our inflation data which came some time back was close to expectation. So I thought that even US inflation might have some improvement, but that was not the case. Now it's almost certain that FED will hike rake by almost 100 bps. Even Buffet told even before the inflation data that the inflation data would be bad and FED will hike the rate by 100 bps. Looks like he is absolutely right.

In our markets, the FII selling is back. So I hope my warning did help some who read this blog.

As soon as the inflation data was out, the US markets fell drastically and SGX fell more than 150 points. Then there was a recovery where S&P and Nasdaq even went to green. The US markets closed in the red after recovering from the day's low and now SGX is almost flat.

Today is expiry and the option premiums were very high due to the event which was there in the US yesterday. If markets open flat then there will be a crash in the premium. I will be making a decent profit today.

Another crypto lender Celcius has now filed for bankruptcy.

Another major news is in Srilanka where the president has gone to the Maldives and is expecting asylum in Singapore or UAE. Now there is an emergency declared and the army has taken over. 

Yesterday, HCL tech came out with a number but there was no major move in the stock. It closed in mild red. 

Today you have ACC coming out with numbers.

Oil prices are still within $100

$ is inching towards Rs 80 which is a major resistance for USDINR

The yield curve inversion between 10yr and 2yr has gone to the highest point from 2020. Keep an eye on this. If inversion happens then the chance of the market falling is very high and the chance of recession is also high.


  1. Yesterday, I did algo trades in options and I was able to make a profit of almost 4500. If I had done this in futures, the profit would be more than 10k. I am still refining the algo for options. I prefer to do in options as the risk is slightly low and the charges are low compared to futures.
  2. I had sold deep otm options for the week and now markets are set to open flat which will give me wonderful profit. I hope a major rally does not come after opening.
  3. For next week I will execute the below trade
    1. +1 X 16200ce
    2. -3 X 16500ce
    3. -3 X 16600ce