Trade setup for 1st Aug



 Sorry for not blogging for many days as I wsa busy with many things. Now I am free and very soon I will be coming out with youtube videos as well.

Till now, I was busy with algo trading and now I have time to breathe.

Last month, the algo gave a profit of almost 10% on the investment but the investment was changed in between. This month, I will be implementing the algo with a capital of 25lak without changing the capital in between(hopefully). Let's see how that goes. 

Coming to markets, the markets are rallying like there is no tomorrow. 

MArkets have added more than 500 points after the FED outcome. Not sure why?? On the ground, nothing has changed or there is something which has happened which I am not aware. Banknifty has added more than 1000 points. 

I thought 17k was a strong resistance. But that was taken out with ease. Now all sectors are contributing. IT, RIL, banks. All are rallying. Now its time to be cautious as RSI of nifty is above 70. But nifty crossed its 200 DMA as well. 

I am not expecting the markets to crash, but the momentum will definitely fall and after a bull market, usually markets go sideways. Now it will be a range bound markets. 17k is a strong support. One can easily sell PE below 17k for the week and month. This is what I will be doing. Even the OI analysis says the same.

China data came out and it was not as expected. So today the Asian markets are slightly in the red. Today there can be some profit booking if markets are week as people are sitting with good profit in the last week.

Now all eyes on India's RBI policy. Lets see if markets will like that or not. Its obvious that even RBI will hike rates. Is that factored in the market?

After many years I saw that the deadline for ITR filing was not changed. Many people in twitter were angry. They will have to pay huge fines if they did not file till yesterday.

It looks like the 5g spectrum action was not as expected. There is not much enthusiasm among the telcos. 

Bajaj twins are rallying on the good earning and bonus/split news as well. For this month, I have sold some deep otm CE options as this is month starting and there may not be even bigger rally. Be careful when you are trading in these high beta stocks. Its a risky bet but worth the reward. 

China's Evergrande has been asked to pay $1.1 billion. Now we need to see if this will be defaulted or not?

MY TRADES

  1. I have sold 16900pe heavily for this week
  2. In bajaj finance, I have sold 8600ce
  3.   I have sold 38500ce in banknifty for this week.
  4. For all the above trades, I will be adding more legs if things go wrong. I am taking trades such that my involvement is less as I will be busy in algo monitoring and refining.
FII AND DII
  1. So is the era of FII selling over??
  2. We can see that FII have been buying for some days now. 
  3. Last week out of 5 days they bought for 4 days. I will wait for our RBI policy. Then I will take a call. For now things are looking good from the FII figure point of view. They have sold continiously for last 3-4 months. Looks like now they are exhaustted and now they will have to pay higher price to enter the market
CRUDE AND $
  1. On Fiday, $ fell sharply. So now Rs 80 may not be taken out easily. I am keeping an eye on this. If 80 is taken out then you can expect markets to fall, esspecially banknifty
  2. Crude is still above $103
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. If US sneezes, then the world catches cold. So the world simply reflects what happens in the US.
  2. IT fell and we fell. Now IT is recovering and our IT is also recovering.
  3. US markets are rallying and so are we.
  4. Joe Biden got covid 2nd time. So be careful when you carry positions overnight as he is more than 75 years of age.
  5. Today the Asian markets are in the red. 

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