Trade setup for 8th July

 Now it's almost certain that the FED will be hiking the interest rate by another 50 or 75 bps this month. But another interesting thing is that the crude is now below $100. If this stays like this for some more time then there is a chance that FED will hike less. May be 25 or 40 bps. If this happens then this is a good news for the market and the rally can continue.

Now if you see that the FII selling has reduced.3 days before they ended buying and 2 days before the selling was not very intense as it used to be.  But 2-3 days data will not help you in concluding anything. Lets see for some more days. 

USDINR was expected to go above Rs 80 but that did not happen. So you can assume that the $ outflow has reduced slightly. Now, the $ what FII get by selling stocks will be in India and there is an opportunity for them to invest in our markets. Again, we need to wait for some more data to confirm that.

The earning season has started. Over the weekend we had TCS and Dmart which came out with numbers. TCS numbers were not good. Dmart numbers were fantastic. So today you can expect IT to be lower. Dmart may rally but that does not have an impact on indexes.

Banknifty has been a very strong index for the last week. I will not be surprised if that continues as the fall which happened here was too much. But that is not the case with metals. During the Russia-Ukraine war, the metals had rallied a lot and now it is falling. The cycle will repeat but wait for the opportune time. I, unfortunately, bought vedanta. I wish I could have waited a little longer. Anyway, I will be hedging that in the options markets.

Now it looks like there is some stability, not just here but also in the world markets. Even the cryptos seem to be settling at $20k. I would still wait for the FED outcome and how the markets will take it. Sometimes it can be silence before a big move, especially when you have an event around.

Elon musk will not be buying Twitter and now twitter is suing Elon musk in the courts. This drama is going to go long now.

Warren buffet lost $6billion as his company had given an unsecured loan to a hedge fund.

The covid fears are again back. Macau has shut its casinos in order to curb covid spread.

The talk of the town is the Srilankan crisis where people enter the PM and president's house. The president has fled the place and now Srilanka has officially declared that they are bankrupt.

Rishi saounak is in the race for the UK PM after Boris jhonson resined. He is the son inlaw os Narayan murthy. He will be the first Indian orgin PM if he is elected. 


  1. I had taken a TCS earning trade. But I was in a decent profit by the end of the day before yesterday. So I closed it before the earning only. Today if it falls too much(>5%) then I will sell some PE and will be taking delivery if it come ti ITM
  2. Tomorrow we have HCL tech. I may take an earning trade for that. I will be disclosing that in social media's. So keep an eye.
  3. I took the below trade for the weekly expiry
    1. +1 X 16200ce
    2. +1 X 16200pe
    3. -1 X 16100ce
    4. -1 X 16300pe
    5. -3 X 15700pe
    6. -3 X 16500ce
  1. The US futures are down.
  2. Asian markets are mildly positive but SGX is suggesting a -ve opning.
  3. SGX is down by 100p points
  1. There was no much activity by FII and DII on Friday. The volume was close to 100cr by each which can be neglected after they were trading in 1000+cr for a ling time
  1. Brent is now at $106
  2. $ is close to Rs 79. All eyes on this to see if it goes beyond 80. I feel that it should go beyond 80 soon