Trade setup for 21st September

 Now all eyes n the FED outcome tomorrow. I have kept my position low. It's better even you goto the event with a low volume. Now its sure that the FED will hike the rate. The question now is by what? Will it be 75bps, 100bps or 125bps. Many analysts are expecting 75 and some are expecting 100.

The US markets have fallen. So have they factored in that? or will there be more fall?? or will there be a short covering after the event? There is no way one can predict this. It's very dynamic and as traders its not your job to do that. Stay away and stay low till the wave is out.

When I say, stay low, does not mean that you sit with cash. You won't believe, that I am almost fully invested. I hardly have any margins left to take any major trade. But the trades are either hedged or in a sweet safe spot.

Now the divergence between US and India is a cause of worry for me. We are going higher and higher but the US is falling almost every day. I totally agree that we are doing good, but when the world is falling, can we grow at the same pace?? The problem is that when the divergence goes out of control, there will be a single day where nifty will fall 500 points which will be painful. 

This is my prediction. I am expecting some short covering in the US markets after the FED event as I feel that the US markets have factored in the FED hike. But, I feel that there won't be a major movement in Indian markets as we have not fallen more. For this month, I am not expecting 18500 to be crossed and 42000 in banknifty.

All are pointing fingers at the Adani group for having huge debt. Now they have pledged their ACC and Ambuja stake for catering to other deals. But the share price does not seem to care. Every day it is making new highs. The Adani trade which I have taken is in wonderful profit. In one of my videos which I did at the start of the month, I showed you how I could have made my adani trade to a no loss trade. I did not do that as I closed that trade and I have taken a fresh trade which I shared in my blog few days ago.

I don't know why Volkswagon is coming out with a Porsche IPO in this environment. They are coming out with IPO in the US markets.

Bitcoin is again below $19k. Ether fell 15% yesterday as FED hike will have an impact to the money flows into cryptos.

Ford fell 12% after the company told that they are worrying about inflation and the cost could be more than a billion.


  1. No trades for tomo expiry. 
  2. For monthly expiry, I have sold 18500ce and 17200pe
  3. I have taken a lot of short positions in banknifty for the Oct series in nifty and banknifty
  1. Yesterday both the indices of the US markets lost more than 1%. Today the futures are in milf green.
  2. Even Europe closed in the red and they lost more than 1%
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the red. Japan is down by more than 1.5%. SGX is suggesting a 80 point gap down.
  1. FII bought for 1000+cr and DII also bought for 100+cr
  1. Keep an eye on $. Its still around 80 but below 80. This will shoot higher if markets are about to fall.
  2. Crude is at $90.5