Trade setup for 27th Sept

 This is what happens when we keep going up and the world market falls. It is easy to connect the dots now and say it was an easy short. But there are many times when this kind of diversion happened and the world markets reversed and went higher. So it's difficult to predict what would have happened. After a point, the markets decided that we had to fall and nifty fell close to 800 points in 4 days and banknifty fell close to 3500 points in 4 days. This is how brutal it can be. Remember, this is an expiry week, and volatility is the game's name.

Last week, I did tell that you need to keep an eye on $ and cude. The point $ crossed 80, we started falling drastically. Now 82 is the support. The fall will be more if 82 is taken out. Now these 2 will decide the move of the market. 

In the US, the yeilds are going higher and higher.

Now all eyes on the RBI policy which will happen in this week. Don't worry. It's on Friday, after the expiry.

Sterling hits new low against the USD. Bank of England told that they are monitoring the situation closely.

The crude oil prices are falling every day. So it's clear that the consumption is lower.

USDINR at its life time low. Yesterday it went to 81.65 which is the lowest. Now 82 is considered as a strong support. Its not just the USDINR. All the major currencies have fallen.

Nifty went below 17k and has recovered slightly and closed above 17k. Now that is the strong support. If that is broken then we may easily slip to 16500 and below. This is the 200DMA for nifty. We need to see if nifty bounces from this level or will this be given up.

Banknifty is at 50DMA. Yesterday that was defended. We need to see if that will be defended or will be given up.

If nifty and banknifty has to bounce, then this is the zone. If not then the fall will be more from here.

Now all are criticizing the FED for not handling the situation properly. But, every job looks easy when you are not the one doing it.

Now the US markets are in the bear market territory. US has closed in the red for 5 days now. Yesterday the US markets opened in the green. But that did not sustain and it closed in the red.

Today, the first hour low is important. If that is protected then the rally can be strong. Today is also finnifty expiry. :)

Putin grants citizenship to Edward Snowden.

China's state is in chaos. There are also reports that their president is kept under house arrest. 


  1. Till last week I was in wonderful profit. This week I have lost most of the profit. Now I am doing a lot of adjustments for the trades which I am holding. There were some trades which I though were not risky and some were risky. After this fall, the risky trades are no more risky but the risk-free trades have now become risky. The moral is 
  2. For this week, the premiums are very good. One can easily sell deep OTM stratngles and make a wonderful profit.
  1. FII sold for 5000cr after a long time. DII bought for almost 3000cr.
  1. Crude is at $85
  2. $ is at Rs 81.65