Now markets are beaten. Are we at the bottom?? Not sure. I personally feel that we have more room on the downside as we have not fallen more compared to the US markets. Till last week we had FII flows supporting us. Now that is also not there. FII are selling in 1000s of crores everyday. Slowly, the retail support is also reducing as inflation is pinching them. Keep an eye on RSI. I think we will fall till RSI in nifty and banknifty goes to 20. Even after falling for 7 consecutive days, RSI is still at 30+. Banknifty has fallen close to 4000 points in just 1 week.
Today is the policy day. So can RBI change the direction of the market? For today, there might be some volatility but when the global markets are collapsing, we cannot continue to go higher. Analysts are expecting the hike to be 50bps
When we were in divergence with the global markets till last week, I clearly told in the blog that if we fall, the fall will be drastic and it will fall in a day or 2. You can see that in a week, banknifty from all time high has gone down by 4k. Nifty fell from 18k to 16.8k. Frankly, telling these things is easy, but taking action accordingly is not easy. Even though I knew that markets would fall, I made decent money only and I am happy.
Yesterday was a fantastic expiry as I was able to make a profit of more than 4.5lak. When banknifty broke 38k, it was evident that it would fall further. I had sold 38000ce in huge quantity which gave wonderful profit.
The day before yesterday, the bank of England told that they will be printing more. The stock markets liked that and that gave a gap up.
The US markets are falling like anything. I think even during covid peak time, the markets did not fall so continuously. During that time, there was a green candle. But now even the US markets are falling consecutively for 5,6,7 days.
Finally, people realized that Apple 14 is similar to 13, 12, and 11. So it looks like Apple is lacking innovation in their mobiles. So the question now is will the dominance be retained? The same thing happened with Facebook when they are planning for a reduction in headcount for the first time. Since then the stock price of meta is falling and now Apple has joined that race. Nasdaq will have more pain if all FAANG joins in this fall due to recession.
Now keep a close eye on crude and $. This will decide the market movement.
Now if you see, most of the stocks are available at a discount, and its luring one to buy. I would wait til there is stability.
MY TRADES
- I had sold 7100ce and 7400PE options of bajajfinace as a part of a strategy. Both are ITM and it would cancel each other. From morning, bajfin was trading above 7150. So I did not bother to close it. After 3 it fell and the buyer was demanding 100rs for these strikes. If 7100 becomes ITM then I had to take delivery of the other which scared me. But luckily it closed in ITM in the last minute. Sometimes, stock options give a heart attack literally. So as best practice, make sure you close 1 or 2 days in advance.
- I will be trading in algo from tomorrow. I will be starting with 2lak which is the minimum capital for the algo. Will scale gradually.
- Today no trade or I may take some monthly trade. Today just sit back and watch the dance.
- Last month, in adani ent only I made around 1lak profit with a capital of less than 10lak. This month I will be doing the below trade
- +1 X 4000ce
- -3 X 4200ce
- -2 X 4250pe
- After closing in green yesterday, the US markets are again back to the falling spree. Again the US markets closed in the red.
- Europe also closed in the red.
- Today the Asian markets are also in the red. SGX is down 60 poitns.
- Crude below $88
- $ is almost at Rs81.8
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