It looks like today will be a bad day for the markets as SGX is suggesting a gapdown of 250+ points. The US futures are again down after having a bad Friday. I did not expect this. I thought that the US employment data would give some relief to the market and the US markets would recover. But the total opposite has happened.
Till now, if the employment data was bad then the markets would fall as that was a sign of bad economy. The employment data which came on Friday was good. But markets went crashing as the inflation fear has increased and the FED got more from to hiking rate. The permutation combination that the stock market has is practically unlimited. Some rare factors which would not have had any value will get the highest value and make an impact on the market. That's why guessing the direction of the market is practically impossible, not even to so-called experts.
Today you have the TCS numbers which will come out. Now we need to see if that will be salt on wound or will this earning season provide some relief to the market. I have sold some deep OTM PE and will take delivery if markets fall. Now the hope is that the markets may recover during the Diwali time.
Ola, Uber auto service banned in Bangalore.
The Russia-Ukaraine issue is somewhat getting escalated as the winter is coming closer and the Europe is running short of the gas from Russia. This is a game where the first one who blinks loses the game. Will the Europe blinck first?? For Russia, he just has to wait for the winter to become strong. Again, guessing these events is definitely not anyone's cup. Make sure your portfolio is hedged to protect you from the worst.
Today JP group will be focus as they are selling their cement biz. There are a lot of trades and acquisitions happening in the cement sector. Its better to stay away from this sector as it will be very volatile. Look at ambuja cements. It has rallied way too much due to Adani's. Let the sector cool.
North Korea guy has again started to test missiles which has caused fear in Japan and S.Korea.
China top leaders will be shuffled. Is that because they were not able to manage the housing crisis which China is facing?
MY TRADES
- Recently when the markets rallied slightly, I thought that the markets might not fall further. So I had taken huge trades in the bullish side. Today most of them will be in loss. In the second half, I may have to add some adjustments.
- I was bullish on IT ,so I had sold PE of TCS and Infy. Today both will be in red. Hope, TCS does some magic after the numbers are out. If it falls further tomo then I will do some adjustment and I am ready to take delivery as well.
- Today I will be doing the below trade in the weekly expiry
- +1 X 17000ce
- -3 X 17400ce
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
- US closed in red. Dow lost more than 700 points and Nasdaq lost more than 3.5% on Friday after the US employment data was out.
- Europe closed in the red.
- Today the Asian markets are down and out. Hangseng down more than 2%. Japan is on a holiday. SGX is down 250 points.
- FII sold for 2250cr and DII bought for only 550cr
- Crude is at $97
- USDINR is close to 83. It looks like, it might cross 83 which is bad for India.
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