Trade setup for 27th October



 Sorry guys for not blogging for many days as I was busy with Deepawali celebration. There was puja in the office and shared sweets with clients. 

Coming to markets, the markets are in the hands of the bulls at the moment. It looks like we may goto 18k in this month. Today is expiry and we may close around 17800-900. We have 3 more days in this month including today where we may touch 18k. 

Now, 18k is the strong resistance. I am expecting nifty to stay +or-500 from here for some time (1 or 2 weeks). After that, there will be a fresh breakout.

Now vix is also falling. So you can expect the market to rally and there might not be a sudden fall in the market. 

Trading now is a challenge as the premiums are low. In case there is volatility, the premiums will shoot giving the sellers a nightmare. 

Yesterday, many tech majors in the US came out with numbers and it was not as per market expectation many techs like Microsoft, google, alphabet, and meta fell taking the Nasdaq down by 2%

It seems that inflation is most likely to ease in the next 6 months. So this has removed some of the pressure on the central banks and they may not hike interest rates aggressively. The markets are cheering that.

Hangseng today jumped 3%. A few days back, for no reason, it fell close to 6%. Not sure why that index is so volatile. There is a lot of activity in this since the day Xi ping has been appointed for the 3rd term.

Most of the major companies' earnings are out. We need to see how this earning season will end.

MY TRADES

  1. My intraday 
  2. Today you will see a huge gap up of almost 200+ points. I don't think there will be more steam in today's move. I will be executing the below trade in today's expiry
    1. +1 X 17900ce
    2. -10 X 18000ce
  3. For next month, I will be executing the below trade
    1. +1 X 17600pe
    2. -5 X 17000pe
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. US markets are mixed. The dow is going higher and higher but nasdaq is going down. The techs are not performing.
  2. Yesterday, the dow closed flat. But nasdaq lost 2%
  3. Today the Asain markets are all in the green. SGX is suggesting a 200+ point gap up.
CRUDE AND $
  1. $ is now within Rs 82
  2. Crude is at $96
FII AND DII
  1. FII sold for 250cr and DII bought for 850cr
  2. Even this month, the FII ended by selling and DII inflows have been strong. 
  3. The question is can we go like this for long?? Have we become so self reliant that we don't need FII money anymore?? Frankly, this is the first time I am seeing this market behavior where FII sell and markets go higher due to FII and retail. Markets always surprise us with a new bullet. 



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