Trade setup for 13th Dec



 The markets are strong. Even though the vix is low, the rallies that we are getting is not low. Yesterday, in the first hr, nifty fell close to 150 points and then there was a recovery. 

My algo loves gap-down. Because most of the gap-down will have a recovery rally. Yesterday the algo was able to make a profit of 1%. Now for the month, I am sitting with a profit of more than 6%

If you see the nifty chart, we closed below the 20DMA. Now we need to see 20dma will be taken out or not on a closing basis. For now, 18600 is a strong resistance. If that is taken out on a closing basis then 18500 may not be touched again in this month. I will be selling 18500 pe aggressively if 18600pe is taken out.

Till now the US markets were weak. Now even they are beginning to rally. But the techs are weak still. Nasdaq did not rally like dow yesterday.

Elon musk is no more the richest man on the planet. Tesla stock is falling everyday. Yesterday it fell close to 4%

Today you have the US cpi data and tomo you have the FOMC meet. Now it depends on the event outcome. Seeing the markets rally yesterday in the US, it looks like they know the outcome or the expectation is low. 

FII selling has again started intensifying. Are we in an era where FII has become irrelevant? The DII and retail are supporting the market like never before.

For this month, 18600 to 18300 is the range. The rally will tend to continue in the direction of this break.

After this week, many institutions will be on a leave. So the volumes may fall and slippages might be high, especially if you an intraday trader.

It's the banks that are giving wonderful support to the market. Especially the PSU banks. Banknifty has closed in the green for 10 consecutive weeks. It's a kind of record. Will this momentum continue?? At the beginning of the month, I had sold 45000ce in Jan series. Even after this kind of rally, I am sitting in profit. The premium will collapse drastically if there is a fall in the banknifty.

The risk-reward on the bank nifty is more on the downside than the upside. Who will get the guts to buy banknifty after such a massive rally from oct. We need a decent correction to enter again and this correction will come. It can't keep going higher and higher. 

MY TRADES

  1. For this week also, I don't want to take aggressive trades as we have an event. Last week we had an event but there was no dhamaka. Usually markets give dhamaka when you don't expect a huge one. Better stay away than repent.
  2. Most of my trades are short trades. Today I will adding more short trades in the banknifty as well.
    1. +1 X 44000ce
    2. -3 X 44500ce
    3. -3 X 45000ce
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. Dow rallied 500 points yesterday. Nasdaq rallied 140 points.
  2. Europe closed in the red.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the green. SGX is suggesting a 40 point up.
FII AND DII
  1. Fii sold for 138cr and dii bought for 700cr
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude is at $79
  2. $ is close to Rs82


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