Seriously, I did not expect such a quick recovery. I have heard people say that the fall will be fast but the recovery will not be fast. Yesterday, all those were proved wrong.
On Friday, the world was so bad. Suddenly on Monday, the entire narrative changed. When 18k was broken on Friday, I did not expect 18k so soon. Definitely did not expect banknifty to recover so soon.
When markets opened yesterday, I thought of going short if markets turn around. But I did not get any opportunity to short. It was just a one-sided rally. The last half-hour fall was not something which was convincing.
Most of the indexes recovered more than 70-80% of Friday's fall. This is indeed an expiry week.
If today's markets close in the green, then for this expiry 18k is a very strong support. I will be selling 17900pe and below strikes for this monthly expiry with a strict SL.
Now all are expecting the inflation to slowdown in the next year and growth to be slow. Is this good enough for the markets to go higher?
I expected Adani ent to correct further, but it is now recovering. Still the trend looks negative only. I will consider that the up trend will continue only if closing is above 3800 with a decent follow and with volume support. Till then I will stick to my short view. Even if it recovers, I have a huge range on the upside as well. So I need not worry immediately. I have executed call ratio spread.
I am still negative on nifty as well. 18150 is the resistance. If this is taken out then I will be selling 18k pe aggressively as well. I will take bullish trades if this is taken out. Yesterday's one-day rally may not change anything fundamentally. But yesterday's recovery shows that the fall may not be severe from here. People's dream of seeing 16k,15k may not happen.
The growth will be slow in 2023 and markets may not rally higher. The fall will also be arrested. Markets may consolidate and go side ways.
Yesterday most of the world markets were on a holiday. So we did not get the actual picture of how the world is behaving.
In this month, Tesla has fallen close to 30%. A trillion of $ is wiped out by the top tech stocks FAANG.
MY TRADES
- Yesterday the algo did not run as there was a corner case issue which is fixed. Hopefully, it runs today. I could have made almost 2% profit yesterday if the algo had run. Sometimes, luck does not favour.
- If nifty closes in the green today then I will take the below trade at 3:15 aggressively
- -1 X 17900pe
- If nifty is closing above 18150 then
- -1 X 18000pe
- If yesterday's low is taken out in some days then the recent high will be strong resistance for Jan
- US was closed
- Today the futures are in the green.
- SGX is suggesting a +ve start. It is up by 55 points
- Crude is at $84.5
- $ is improving. Yesterday it is areoung Rs 82.5
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