Now all eyes are on the Gujarat election results and RBI policy and US FED policy. Yesterday the voting in Gujarat got over and the exit polls result suggests a huge victory for the incumbent BJP and lead in Himachal. This was expected. It was a no-brainer that BJP would retain Gujarat. It looks like the markets have factored in that or we need to see if there will be a rally after the result which will be out soon.
If you see the nifty chart, it has been rallying since oct even when the world markets were falling. We are at ATH when the world markets are fighting recession, war, etc.
As I told you yesterday, I am not expecting a huge rally and I am expecting the markets to consolidate or retrace to 20 DMA. This is just my view. During events, the markets may take any shape which is hard to predict.
Yesterday, nifty fell close to 100 points and from there it reversed and closed in the green. There is a huge FII buying in the last few days. You can see, that every dip is being bought.
Now, if today's closing is below 18650 then I will be selling 19000ce in the monthly expiry. The chances of the market going lower is high but the event may change things.
The US markets are again scared of recession as the jobs data which came out recently was good. Now they are scared that the FED is going to hike rates again. Dow fell close to 500 points yesterday. If you see the US markets, the day before yesterday fell 400 points but there was a recovery. Yesterday there was no recovery. Markets fell and closed at the low. This indicates that the upside momentum is low. Till nw, we defied the entire world market and gone higher. How long can this continue?? I don't think this can go longer. At one point we have to fall in accordance to the world market.
We are in December. In some time the big boys will go on vacation. The volume in the market will be low which means that the slippage will be high and there will be sharp movements. So be careful in that front.
Yesterday, Kotak securities NEO was down for the entire day. My API works on Kotak securities in-house API. So I did not face any issues. There was a lot of outrage on social media for this.
MY TRADES
- Today I will sell 19000ce in monthly expiry if 18650 is broken.
- Yesterday my algo was able to capture the rally on downside and upside and I was able to make a profit of around 2%
- I am not taking huge trades in this weekly expiry due to events.
- Threre is fear in the global markets and the world markets are falling.
- Today the Asian markets are down. SGX is suggesting a 90 point pullback.
- After the opec+ meet day before yesterday, the cude is now inching higher. It is now close to $83
- USDINR is at Rs81.87
- FII sold for 1100+cr and DII bought for 2600cr
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