Over the weekend there was many cues. Many companies came out with numbers. Overall it looks like the numbers of most of them were good and have beaten estimates. The major once were the RIL, ICICI, kotakbank. Both have come out with good numbers. Kotak bank has beaten estimates. The reason why I am telling about kotak bank is because I made a video on a strategy that I will be implementing today on kotak bank for next expiry.
It looks like there will be a gapup today. But this is fine. We can still go ahead and implement the strategy. You can check my youtube channel for the video.
We in the last week before the budget. Will there be a pre budget rally. In the next 3 days if there is a huge rally like anything more than 500+ then there may not be a major rally after the budget. If markets are going sideways or slightly bullish, one can expect a major rally after the budget.
Some of the FED officials also told that the FED may wait for some time to see if inflation has eased before raising the rates again. Markets will tend to move higher if FED does not hike more rates. Now inflation fear is gradually subsiding. At least the markets have moved on. Most of the worst has been factored in. Now the risk-reward is more on the long side. So look for an opportunity to enter the market than shorting the market.
Today we need to see if 20 dma will be taken out on banknifty and if nifty will race towards 50 dma. I wont be surprised if nifty goes close to 18300 for this expiry.
Remember, this is monthly expiry and expect volatility in this as there will be a lot of covering in stocks that happen in this week.
On Friday, when the markets fell and closed in the red, vix also closed in the red. This was the clear indication that the bull rally would be coming. Today you can see that the SGX is already showing a gap of 100+ points.
MY TRADES
- As I told before, we may not even come back to 18000 for this expiry.
- +1 X 18000pe
- -3 X 17800pe
- -3 X 17900pe
- I have sold huge quantity of 17700 pe on Friday. I got it at around 11rs. Today I will be selling some deep OTM CE and convert this to strangle.
- Obviously, I will be taking the kotak trade
- The US markets are closing in the red. We did not fall much when the US fell. Now the US is recovering and we will be the outperforming markets.
- Today the Asian markets are in the green. SGX is suggesting a 100 point gap
- FII sold for 2000+cr and DII bought for 1500+cr
- $ below 81
- Crude at $87
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