Trade setup for 30th Jan

 As there was a long weekend, I had been on a family trip to Mangalore, Sringeri and Horanadu. I thought it would be a relaxing trip for me but the fall in the markets on Friday did not make it that way. I was getting calls from team, brokers, clients etc. The algo failed, markets fell drastically. There was huge volatility. All things that could go wrong went wrong on Friday. Murphy's law working at its best. 

Luckily, I did not have many overnight positions. So from my or my client's positions was not any problem. I had Adanient 3100 PE sold in the jan series. The series got over on Thursday and on Friday Adani ent is down and out. As I tell, you need a lot of luck as well in this market to excel.

Hindenburg came out with a lot of allegations on the Adani group including corruption, money laundering etc. This has happened when we are close to the Adani FPO. If Adani does not recover then this FPO may fail. Adani has given a 400+page response to the Hindenburg report. Lets see what will happen today in that group. The Adani group stock which are not in FNO are in negative freeze. Will that continue today or will they open today. 

SBI has also told that their exposure is well in control. 

So it looks like there might be some recovery in the Adani group stocks. Let's see.

In 2 days, nifty fell 500+ points and banknifty fell close to 2500 points. 

Now the key to the bulls is in the hands of Nirmala Sitaram in the budget. Usually, if markets fall drastically before the event then there will be a massive short covering after the event. So for now, the risk-reward is in the favor of the bulls. So I will be taking some bullish positions. This is also the last budget before the election. Lets see if there is some good news to the middle class in this. If the FM meddles with the LTCG then that may take the markets lower.

We have the US fed meet as well beginning today. Seeing the inflation, it looks like the FED may not take any major step from the rates point of view. This Wednesday, the morning we have the budget and in the night we have FED meeting.

Adani CFO is talking to CNBC today. Let's see if he has anything to provide relief to the markets.

Djokovic wins the Australian open and the Indian women's cricket team won the under-19 world cup.


  1. On Friday, the algo encountered a small problem and my team closed it with a minor loss of 1k. Today I am back to my desk. Lets see
  2. I am taking some bullish trades for the budget.
    1. +1 X 17700pe
    2. -10 X 17000pe
  3. I am selling some deep OTP PE in banknifty
    1. -1 X 37000pe 
  4. All the trades are in monthly expiry
  1. The Chinese markets opened after a very long holiday. It has opened in the green.
  2. Today the Asian markets are in the flat zone. The US futures are slight in the red.
  3. SGX is flat. Lets see how will the markets take the Adani's response. 
  1. FII sold for 6k cr on Friday. DII bought for 4.5k cr
  2. For the month FII have sold for almost 30k cr
  1. $ is at Rs 81.5
  2. Crude at $87