Nifty wad down and out for 5 consecutive days. Then yesterday was expiry and it closed in mild green after a lot of volatility. We need to see if the lows will be protected. Nifty closed below 17k which was a strong support. Now if there is a follow through today then the support will be 16800. For now 16800 is very strong support. If that is broken then god save the markets. Then I will close all trades and take a small vacation.
I feel that the markets are oversold in the short term. That is because we are overreacting to the small bank which collapsed in the US as a banking crisis and people are comparing it with 2008 crisis.
SVB is 82nd largest bank in the US. Signature bank is 92nd largest bank. These are very small banks. As I told before, I had not even heard of this bank before. The problem people are getting scared is that there are more banks in the line. I don't think so.
In 2008, Lehman brothers which was 4th largest investment bank which filed bankruptcy. Not only this. US govt had to bail out major companies like GM, AIG, Citi group. That's why there was a crash.
There can't be a crash for every tom dick and harry which goes bankrupt.
I would say that one should use this opportunity to go long in the markets, at least in the cash market because once this is over, markets will continue its uprally. Identify sector and stocks which has fallen a lot in this saga and invest in phases.
I feel the fear of recession is also not that strong. The reason is they are playing the same record for more than 6 months and now markets have fallen from 18500 to 17000 and I feel that it has played out.
I am already taken some long position and sitting in a minor loss. Maybe that's the reason why I am baised on the long side.
Another major issue which came was that or credit suisse. A major investor, saudi national bank told that they will not be able to invest FURTHER in this. They have already invested in this. They also told that they are confident of the company's turnaround plan but its just that their hands are tied to invest more. This caused panic in the markets and day before yesterday it fell close to 20%. Then swiss national bank told that they will invest and then it recovered little to close with 13%. Yesetrday it was n green
Because of this, the Europe fell drastically day before yesterday and recovered yesterday . This happened after our markets fell day before yesterday. SGX is now in green. Its crazy.
ZEE has told that they will give money to its lender which is indusind bank.
In another major news, TCS CEO has quit. So we need to see how this will impact the stock price. Use these kind of opportunity to enter to the stock.
MY TRADES
- My algo gave another loss yesterday. It has given red for 3 consecutive days now. These are the times where sticking to the system becomes challenging. It has happened in the past as well. I will be continuing to run the system. These are some of the things which is difficult to explain to clients.
- I did not expect markets to fall so much but here it is. My weekly trades were in loss. I closed them with a minor loss.
- My monthly trades are in minor loss. I am now betting on my conviction and gut. The overall loss is less than 5%. I may probably put a SL to 5% if things don't recover.
- There are some phases in life where nothing works. At the same time, there will be some time where all the stars align and everything works. Lets see.
- I will be selling 3000 pe in TCS and will take delivery if it becomes ITM
- US markets ralled and closed in the green. Dow gained almost 400 points. Nasdaaq gained almost 3%
- Europe closed in the green.
- Today the Asian markets are in the green. SGX is up by 100 points.
- FII sold 300cr and DII bought for 2000+cr
- Crude is below $75 which is very good for India. The OPEC will not be happy. They will definitely do something to push the ol prices.
- $ s at Rs 82.6
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