Markets are going up as if there is no tomorrow. FII are pumping money like India is the next heaven. The MSCI rebalancing has given them the opportunity to pump money. They are investing heavily into banks. The banknifty has gone up 20% in this month. Such a big index moving 20% in a month is really surprising. Every dip is being bought. There is no sign of markets falling. Yesterday in the second half there was a dip which was bought aggressively. Now nifty is up consecutively for 8 days. The RSI is above 70 for both nifty and banknifty. This is the sign of overbought. For the all 8 days the nifty has moved more than 100 points. I think this is the first time I am seeing such a huge movement on the upside. ICICI, kotak, SBI are all more than 20% in the last 8days. This is clearly a roaring market and this is not the point to short. At the same time, this is definitely not the time to go long as well.
Yesterday there was Wednesday volatility where nifty opened with a gap of 100 points, then there was selling and it fell 200 points from its high. Immediately there was buying and it shot up 200 points from its low.
The govt has approved 1.46lak cr as PLI(production lined incentives) for 10 sectors. Yesterday this news came during the market hours, so that might be a non-event today. There is a news that govt may come out with another stimulus package for the Diwali and this may probably be for the job creation sector.
The US markets are also in the mojo. Even they are rallying as they had Pfizer news and presidential election event. Now the only bad news is that the Covid cases are rising in the US and Europe.
MY TRADES
- I had to close some of my positions in loss yesterday as I could not manage the upside rally which is happening.
- I still have some positions and I am managing that.
- Today is expiry and I may have to do some firefighting.
- Dow jones was flat. Nasdaq shot up 2%. Nasdaq is acting like a crazy monkey. 1 day it is down and the next day you will see reversal.
- European markets also closed in the green. Even they closed in the green.
- Today morning the asian markets are slightly in the red. The question is will this red be bought aggressively by FII.
- Not sure what FII saw in India all of a sudden. In this month alone, they have bought for 25000cr which is just 10 days. This is too much for FII to invest. Yesterday again they bought for 6000cr.
- Its very difficult to anticipate FII moves and very very difficult to go aginst the trend as well.
- Crude is at $44
- $ index is at 93
- Nifty has highest OI at 12800ce and 12600pe
- Banknifty has highest OI at 29kce and 28kpe
- Nifty has a maxpain at 12650 and that of banknifty s at 28500
- nifty may range from 12800 to 12650
- banknifty may range from 29400 to 28000
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