Trade setup for 1st December



  1.  Is there any major event coming up? I don't think so. Most of the good news is over now. The only major good news can be the covid vaccine now. I am sure that will happen very soon, probably in 2020 itself. We have reached the final month of the dangerous year. Usually, December is a silent month as most of the people in the world will be preparing for the Christmas celebration and vacation. But this year, we don't know how the world will behave. The markets have rallied too much in the short time and the markets are slightly overstretched. Even the FII's longs are more. So any slight bad news will be taken on the chin and the markets might correct sharply. So it is better to trade with the right hedge. 
  2. Over the weekend Iran's nuclear scientist was killed and Iran is doubting Israel's hand in this act. So there is some tension in the middle east. 
  3. Moderna has applied for an emergency US FDA as it claims that its vaccine is 94% effective. Now many companies are in the race for the application. So looks like there will be good news very soon. 
  4. The Covid cases are being reviewed by the PM and PM is meeting the farmer unions regarding the recent farm bill which was passed. 
  5. From today we will have the peak margins which will be effective. So brokers will not be able to give any further intraday margins like before. So it is expected that the volumes at the exchange will fall drastically. Let's see. There is also rumours that the SEBI might squash this after observing for a few months which may or may not happen but there is no official statement by the Sebi. So from now, my expiry trading profits which is the major chunk of the profit will fall. 
  6. China came out with it PMI data and it was good.
  7. Yesterday we had a holiday and SGX had fallen 200 points. Intraday it recovered and is now in the green.

MY TRADES

  1. Now, my strategy has to be changed as peak margins are in place. So in few months we will not have any intraday margins. So I am preparing for it from now itself. 
  2. On Friday. I executed 13000 iron fly
    1. -1 X 13000ce
    2. -1 X 13000pe
    3. +1 X 12500pe
    4. +1 X 13500ce
  3. Now that MSCI rebalcing is over, I don't think there is more leg in kotak bank. So I executed a call ratio spread
    1. +1 X 1900ce
    2. -3 X2000ce
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
  1. The US markets closed in the red. Dow lost around 300 points.
  2. European markets closed in the red. They loat more than 1.5%
  3. Today morning the Asian markets are in the green. SGX is again around 13000.
FII AND DII
  1. On the last day of MSCI rebalancing, FII has pumped 7700cr and DII sold 5000cr
  2. Lets see if this kind of buying will continue in December which I doubt.
  3. On covid peak month of march, FII sold for 65000cr and in November they have bought for 65000cr
CRUDE AND FII
  1. Crude is at $47.58
  2. $ is at Rs74

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