Trade setup for 11th Feb


 

Yesterday was a very quiet day till 3pm. I was wondering where was the Wednesday volatility. Then came a strong pull back at 3pm. Nifty shot 140 points in the last half an hour. 

Nifty has taken 15000 as the support and has made a strong bounce from there. This is good, provided it is not a trap. This happens when strong money enters the markets and obviously, it is the institutions.

Today is weekly expiry. So there will be more volatility today. 

Reliance came strongly yesterday. 

Bankifty will be in pressure as it has rallied massively after the budget. 

Now it is the midcap time. Solid money is moving to midcaps. So from now, I will not invest in large caps as I have a good portfolio there. I will start accumulating midcaps but not at the same rate I did large-caps.

The petrol prices in Mumbai is 94 now. Very soon it will touch 100. That will be something which will be sentiment negative. Let's see if markets take that as negative or will the rally continue. Frankly, I want the markets to rest for some time so that the things will be clear. A continuous big rally is also not good for the markets as the fall also will be very bad.

MY TRADES

  1. Today you have ITC results. I had taken a small position for the budget in options. It's still in the minor loss. Let's see if I can recover it. I will close my position in a loss if 250 is crossed today.
  2. My weekly options are in a good position as my butterflies, iron condor are in profit already. I had to do some adjustments in the week. 
  3. Today I will be busy in expiry trades. If 15k is broken today by any chance then I will build some short positions for the near term in options.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. Dow is rallying and closed in the green for 9 consecutive days. Nasdaq, however, was in red.
  2. Europe closed in the mild red. 
  3. Today most of the Asian markets are closed due to holiday. SGX is down by 70 points fro now. Let's see how markets will party today
FII and DII
  1. FII bought for 1785cr and DII sold for 2075cr
  2. Dont even think of markets crashing with FII being buyers. A week before the budget, even I thought that markets will goto 14k by seeing the way they sold, but now they are again bullish and pumping money heavily. Let's see how long they will go doing this. 
EXPIRY SETUP
  1. 15300ce and 15000pe have the highest OI. 
  2. 36500ce and 35000pe have the highest OI
  3. max pain of nifty is at 15050 and that of banknify is at 35900
  4. Nifty might range from 15k to 15200
  5. banknifty may range from 36k to 35k


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