Trade setup for 19th Feb




 As expected, the markets fell. If my view is correct, then it will retest 15k and 20 DMA. This does not mean you short as it will be riskier. FII are still long in the market. This data is not giving full conviction to go short. So the best strategy to trade in options with a hedge. Call ratio spread or put ratio spread will work beautifully which is what I have implemented.

If your capital is small then you can take the risk of buying 15000pe.

Markets should ultimately fall as

  1.  Rallied a bit too much in a short span of time after the budget.
  2. Fuel has hit a century. This time the macro data will be bad as inflation will be higher.
  3. Its a chain. You just need a trigger.
Again, I am not ultra bearish. I am just bearish for the short term. So don't expect nifty to goto 7k, 10k etc. It may bounce at 20 or 50 DMA is what I am expecting.

Yesterday was a wonderful expiry. Was able to make around 2lak this expiry. 
This weekend, I am releasing my online course. I will be giving it for FREE for 100 participants who took part in the survey.  

Fresh covid cases in Mumbai and now there are some restrictions in the city. Last year around this time, the covid had begun. Is repeating again and will there be a second wave? Maybe, a second wave of the pandemic may come but stock markets won't get scared from that.

The new girl in the market, bitcoin has cooled off a bit but it is still above $50k.

MY TRADES
  1. I will not be doing any major trade for this week as I am going out on Monday and Tuesday. I may not be able to monitor my positions. So I will take a trade on Tuesday or Wednesday.
  2. I will deploy a small amount into a butterfly.
  3. I have already deployed heavily in call-ratio spread which is already in profit and is in safe territory. 
  4. If nifty goes below 15k, then I will start investing in quality stocks in phases.
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
  1. Yesterday after the US markets closed, Yellen spoke about the stimulus and she was bullish. The dow futures recovered slightly. But, this may not sustain. 
  2. ONE SIMPLE SECRET: When the company board or Finance minister or RBI governor comes on television and tells that there is no problem in the company, economy, banks respectively then it means that there is some problem. Stay away!!!
  3. The US job data came and was worst than what was expected. 
  4. Europe also closed lower.
  5. Today morning the Asian markets are in red. SGX suggests a negative opening.
FII AND DII
  1. FII are still buying. They bought for 900cr and DII sold for 1200cr.
CRUDE AND $
  1. $index is at 90.6 which is still good for the inflows.
  2. Crude has cooled off a bit. Is is now at $63
  3. $ is at Rs 72.



     

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