Happy fools day. The greatest success in this world is achieved by fools. So don't be shy to be a fool. Let me give you some advice, FOOLS. Never forget what you are. The rest of the world will not. Wear it like armour, and it can never be used to hurt you.
Coming to the market, it is a very confusing market and it is in a consolidation phase with a wide range. One day it is up and the next day it is down. The day before yesterday, it shot up 300+ points and yesterday half of it is gone.
The interest rate is cut and I am not surprised. Very soon, we will follow the west and have an interest rate of 1 or 2%. It's just a matter of time. This is a jolt for all the pensioners, and people who are dependent on these interests. Now it is put on hold by the govt.
Biden has announced the $2 trillion package. But it is going to be spent over 8 to 10 years. So there was no much enthusiasm in the markets. Dow closed in red and Nasdaq closed in the green after losing for 2 consecutive days.
The nifty lot size is reduced from 75 to 50 and will start in July.
Now the fresh cases in covid are what markets are worrying about. If there is a lockdown then this may be a trigger for markets to fall else this will not be even considered. France has gone for a particle lockdown. We need to see if Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka will go for any lockdown as cases are rising here. I don't think so.
We have Auto sales data coming today. This is a crucial month for the year as this quarter earnings will tell if the markets have recovered or not. The core sector data which came out yesterday was bad.
I am expecting the data to be bad and we may head lower. We may retest 14k in this month.
MY TRADES
- My trade in my Zerodha account will be in profit today. At least that's what SGX is telling.
- My butterfly is also in wonderful profit. Today's move will give me that extra bonus which butterfly's give.
- I have long term option trades. Now that the lot size is changing, I don't know who those will be impacted.
- Today there is no much expiry trade as no margin available due to year-end.
- US ended mixed
- Europe closed in the red.
- Today morning the Asian markets are in the green and SGX is suggesting a gap up.
- one day they sell and the other day they buy. Very confusing to conclude their behaviour.
- Yesterday they sold for 1600cr and DII bought for 2000cr
- Nifty has the highest OI at 15kce and 14500pe
- Banknifty has the highest OI at 34kce and 33kpe
- Max pain of nifty is at 14700 and that of banknifty is at 33500. This is likely to change after we have a gap.
- Nifty may range from 14800 - 14900 and banknifty may range from 33500 to 34000
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