Trade setup for 31st March

 Today is the last day of the financial year. Tomorrow we have the weekly expiry and all the year-end accounting, booking losses etc will be done for the day. Tomorrow's expiry will be an interesting one. 

I have been totally wrong in my view of the markets. I was expecting a weak market but yesterday's massive move proved me wrong. Nifty futures were trading at a premium of 100 points which was a bullish sign. But since there was no major event I expected the premium to fall as well.

Yesterday's move was one of the biggest moves I have seen in a day, at least in some time now. 

Yesterday's move was led by IT, Reliance, banks. It's obvious that when all these things start moving then there is no stopping for nifty. But the banks were slightly at the backfoot. When nifty shoots up 300+ points, it's obvious that banknifty should be more than 1000, but it did not shoot 1000 points. 

Now 14400 is very strong support for the month. It looks like that the double top pattern has not formed. Still, I would wait for that confirmation till nifty closes above 15000. Yesterday nifty crosses its 20 DMA. Now we need to see if this recovery will continue or will it reverse again.

Frankly, I am confused with the market movement for now. I thought markets would fall, but now it has recovered. FII is also giving confusing signs. 1 day they are buying and then they sell. The underlying is that the markets are getting more and more volatile. In the last 2sessions, we have gone up by 500 points. 

Now the earning season will begin and tomorrow we have the Auto sales data for the month. Lets see if the earning can keep pace with the stock movement.

Biden is set to announce the 3 trillion infra stimulus. The markets are anticipating that and probably that can be a major event which we can wait for.

Indian bonds may be included in the FTSE. So this is a piece of good news and analysts say that there might be an inflow of around 10 billion into Indian markets. 

Today is Wednesday and there will be a lot of volatility in the markets. 

The US bond yield went up to 1.7. $ index is at 93


  1. I am currently sitting at a loss of around 6k in my Zerodha account. I have not added any adjustment trade. Today I will decide whether an adjustment is needed or not. I think I may have to do some firefighting techniques for this trade. I will be sharing the trades in telegram as well.
  2. Good that I closed some of the call ratio spread which I had taken for April. Sometimes luck also plays a role. Otherwise, those trades would be in danger and I should have done some counter trades. 
  3. I will be executing the below trades for tomorrow expiry. I will be deploying a huge volume in this trade.
    1.  -1 X 15300ce
    2. +1 X 15500ce
    3. -1 X14400pe
    4. +1 X 14200pe
  1. The US markets closed in the red. Dow lost 100 points. Nasdaq closed in red for 2nd consecutive day.
  2. Europe however closed in the green.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in mild red. SGX is suggesting a -ve opening. 
  1. Crude is at $64
  2. $ is at Rs 73.4
  1. Yesterday both FII and DII bought. FII bought for 700cr and DII bought for 2100cr