Trade setup for 01st July

 Today is the first day of July. This is a 5-week expiry. We have almost completed 1 week. So 4 more to go.

The markets are looking weak. And now the performance of the economy and the performance of the companies will play an important role to take nifty higher. So breaking 16000 looks slightly difficult but we cannot short the markets unless we have a confirmation that markets will fall. We are in consolidation and a sideways phase now.  Now vix is also falling. So you cannot rule out the possibility of nifty making an upmove. I will get confirmation of upmove when 16900 is broken on the upside and i will take aggressive short positions when 15600 is broken on the closing basis. Frankly, I had the same feeling at 15k as well. Breaking 15k looked difficult but then nifty crossed 15k with ease. 

India vix is also at 13. Trading in this environment is also difficult as options premiums are very very low. You can see, the ATM straddle is at 80 yesterday. Today at opening it will fall further. You can see, nifty has made a move of close to 150 points. Similarly in banknifty. ATM stradle is at 300 but banknifty makes a move of 400+ in a day. In this market, neutral strategies may not work well. You should play directional. 

Vodafone is not able to raise funds. I have bought this some time back. Within 3 months it shot up 30%. I thought I made a wonderful investment in this and I was repenting that I did not invest more. Then it started falling and now it is almost at my price only. I hope they will raise funds fast or merge with airtel or jio. 

Today you have the auto sales data. This is an important data point that gives an indication of how the markets are performing.

There is an opec+ meet and if they do something to raise the demand then oil prices may settle else oil is expected to go to $80 which is bad for India. The oil producers are not investing as they expecting the world to move to renewable energy sooner than expected.


  1. I had a lot of trades and yesterday I was able to close them in profit. I have taken short strnagles in nifty and banknifty. I have not added the hedge or taken protection as premiums are low. Its a risky trade which one should not do. From now I will make sure to take hedges irrespective of the market condition. Sometimes, being disciplined is difficult but necessary and important.
  2. I have taken the below trades in stock options
    1. -5 X 2200ce in reliance
    2. +5 X 2300ce in reliance
    3. -2 X 1100pe in tata steel
    4. +1 X 1180pe
  3. I have a lot of investment in ITC, reddy lab, bajfin, sunpahrma etc. I have executed covered call for all these.
  4. I have invested in a lot of other companies as well. Will execute covered call today to tomorrow for them.
  1. The US markets closed mixed. Dow closed in green. Nasdaq lost.
  2. Europe closed in the red
  3. Today the Asian markets are flat. SGX is flat.
  1. Crude is at $75
  2. $ is at Rs 74
  1. Banknifty may range from 35k to 34k
  2. Nifty mar range from 15800-15600
  3. Better execute short strangle for this expiry as premiums are low.


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